Rapid Intensification

In recent years, we've seen several storms coming up through the Gulf of Mexico that were not forecast to become major hurricanes until just hours before landfall.

Hurricane Michael in 2018, for example. A couple of days out, it was expected to be a Category 2, at worst. Five hours before landfall, it was a mid-range Cat3. By the time it hit the Florida coast, it was a Cat5. 

Scientists are now studying what causes this rapid intensification. One theory is that when we have a busy hurricane season, one storm comes through and churns up the Gulf waters. The cooler waters are pulled to the surface, and the warm water is pushed down. After the storm, the surface waters warm up, but the deeper water doesn't have time to cool down before the next storm comes through.

Warm water fuels hurricanes.

A group called Saildrone is sending their autonomous boats into hurricanes in  2021 to collect data at surface level. 

Hopefully, we will learn more about this phenomenon of rapid intensification, so forecasters can more accurately predict the strength of a storm early on, giving coastal residents more time to prepare.

It's best to always assume the worst is going to happen. If you put your shutters up expecting a Cat4 or 5 storm, and it turns out it's only a tropical storm, it's just a few hours wasted. If you expect a tropical storm or a Category 1, and you don't prepare, you could be putting your safety at risk. 

My Mam-ma always said, "Better safe than sorry."

Disaster Tech For Your Next Emergency

The tropics are quiet for the moment, but we've already had five named storms so far in 2013. The height of the season begins now. Time to look at the tech you have to help you through a natural disaster.

Techlicious has a great article on gadgets you can use during a power outage. My favorite is the Eton BoostTurbine 2000mAh Portable Backup Battery Pack-Charger (pictured, left). This one's about $60 at Amazon, but the company makes some other portable, self-powered charging units that are cheaper. I don't have a smartphone, but I can make calls, send text messages, and tweet from my old-fashioned flip phone. That gives me several ways to keep in touch with family and friends, even if the power's out, the phone lines are down, and the internet is dead.

The Tampa Bay Times profiles several kinds of storm gear, including some home water purifiers. Right after Hurricane Ivan, we were getting just a trickle of water, at best, until the company repaired damaged pipes and equipment. You should have enough bottled water for your family and pets for at least three days, but if repairs take longer than that, or if you want to be sure you have clean water for washing up, a purification device provides a simple worry-free option. You can also use water purification additives or add plain bleach.

Remember, some of the most important items in your disaster kit are gadgets, and they need to be powered by batteries, solar, or crank - not electricity.

• Portable Radio
• Flashlight
• Can Opener
• Hand Tools

Review your emergency kit today. Make sure you have fresh batteries for everything that needs them. If disaster strikes, you'll be glad you did.

Free Hurricane Safety Handbook

The Gulf of Mexico Alliance has put together state-specific handbooks to help you get ready for a hurricane and of other natural disasters, including floods and tornadoes. These are free pdf downloads, so, you have no excuse not to take a look at the handbook for your state and see if your disaster plan is missing anything.

The book is more than just a checklist. They include radio stations you can turn to for information in your area, websites that can provide additional information on things like flood risk, and agencies and organization that may be able to provide you with guidance or assistance before, during, or aftter a disaster. Because these are in-depth guides, the files are pretty big. It may take a few minutes for it to download . 


Alabama
Florida
Louisiana
Mississippi
Texas


Please note, these links are not direct to the pdf, in case the link changes. They are links to a page that has information about and a link to the handbooks. You may have to scroll down a bit to find it. These pages also have a lot of other information that you may find useful.

If you live in an Atlantic Coast state, I'd suggest downloading one of these handbooks anyway, because while they may have some state-specific info that won't apply to you, they'll have a lot that will be the same for any coastal community.

Start the Season Right

Day two of Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we have a tropical low just entering the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center says it has a low chance of developing into a tropical storm.Still, if you haven't checked your storm supplies, now's a good chance to do it. Even if this storm turns out to be nothing, you'll be ready in case something serious develops between now and November 30.


Food - Do you have at least three days worth of non-perishable food, enough for your whole family, potential guests, and your pets? Remember, you won't have the use of electric can openers, the microwave, or your electric stove.

Water - The rule is one gallon of drinking water per person, per day, and you're expected to take care of yourself for at least three days. FEMA can't bring in supplies until roads are cleared and the local government coordinates someplace for them to set up their distribution center. Don't forget that you'll need additional water for washing hands. Again, don't forget your pets.

Batteries - You'll need a battery-operated or hand-crank radio and flashlights. The radio will help you get crucial information about the storm's movements once the power is knocked out. It's also how you'll find out where those FEMA distribution centers are. And it's awfully dark at night when no one for miles around has electricity. Flashlights and battery-operated lanterns are the best way to see where you're going and what you're doing after dark. Candles and hurricane lamps both put off heat (which you don't need in the South in the summertime) and pose a fire risk. Make sure you have fresh batteries for all your lights, radios, and other emergency devices.

The Florida Public Service Commission, which oversees utility companies, has put together some safety tips. Also check out the sidebar links on this page for more lists of what you need to be ready for bad weather and other disasters.

Isaac Is Coming!

We put up some of our hurricane shutters today, on windows in the back of the house, the three pictured plus two smaller windows for the office and bathroom. Unless the track drastically changes, we'll put up most of the other ones tomorrow - side windows for office and bedroom, front windows on bedroom, cats' room, living room, dining room, and probably the back doors. I'm guessing Tim will want to wait and do the front door on Monday, so we can keep using it.

Once I get to work on Monday, I will likely be there until after the storm passes. I'll have the car, as our street will probably flood. With Ivan in 2004 and in the spring floods of 2005, the water got almost to our front porch, so the car will be safer in the parking lot at work. NOT under the tree where I usually park for shade.

I wasn't worried when Isaac was projected to be a Category 1 at landfall. Now it's expected to be a mid-range Cat 2. That's a little more troublesome, especially since we've had so much rain this year. Trees are blowing over left and right in regular thunderstorms. The large trees in our yard are all gone, but one neighbor has several oaks and pecans that could fall on our house, and another neighbor has a tall pine that could hit our shed.

If you want to better understand the Saffer-Simpson Scale (Cat 1-5), check out this animation created by The COMET Program and posted on the National Hurricane Center website. It illustrates how much wind damage can be caused at each level.

Be ready. Be safe.

Isaac on the Way

Isaac is intensifying as it approaches Haiti, and most of the models have it heading into the central Panhandle of Florida on Tuesday.

Ted Lange as Isaac Washington.

Am I the only one who keeps picturing Isaac from The Love Boat? I always liked Ted Lange. Unfortunately, the Isaac that's churning in the Gulf of Mexico is no fun to be around.

The models have been all over the place on this one. Over the past three days, the National Hurricane Center's track has taken the storm as far west as Mississippi and as far east as the Florida Peninsula. Sometimes the models are close together, sometimes they're more spread out.

A lot of different factors go into determining the way the storm will go. Troughs, ridges, high pressure systems all play a role in guiding the storm, and different models predict different developments of those areas. In other words, it's a guessing game. A very scientific guessing game based on our knowledge of weather patterns over the years, but it's guessing all the same.

No matter where the eye makes landfall, the rest of the Gulf Coast will get some of its effects. Right now, the storm is about 460 miles across. It's getting smaller; on Thursday, I read it was 678 miles across and before that, I'd heard a thousand miles across. Tropical cyclones tend to get smaller as they become more organized, as Isaac is doing now. It was a very scattered, low intensity storm. As I write this at 2:30 a.m. on Saturday, the eye is becoming more defined. It makes a pretty picture, but it means the storm is getting scarier.

I bought batteries, duct tape, wet wipes, extra bandage strips, bread, and lots of bottled water today. We have plenty of canned tuna and chicken, potted meat, Vienna sausages, and green beans (which we eat cold out of the can). I also picked up some BelVita Breakfast Biscuits; they're like cookies but with some nutritious value. We have some shelf stable milk in the fridge, but I need to drink up the half gallon of soy milk I bought last week. Maybe that's what doomed us; since Hurricane Ivan, we haven't bought two gallons of milk at the same time, but this is soy AND it's chocolate, so I didn't think it would count. Yes, I'm a bit superstitious about this!

We'll continue to watch the storm's track and decide on Sunday if we need to put up the storm shutters that we got through Rebuild Northwest Florida. I'm glad that we'll be able to cover all of our windows this time; the long windows on the two front bedrooms didn't have any protection before, and all we had over the three large windows on the back room were burglar bars. Our roof was replaced, and between the roofing company and the folks from Rebuild, we have lots of extra nails and tie-downs in, to keep it attached.

I think we're as prepared as we can be.

My worries: one of the neighbors' trees has been leaning a bit since Ivan; the ground is saturated because of the flood event on June 9 and near daily storms since; and one of the cats is sick, which is unrelated to the storm of course, but still an extra stress we don't need. We will have to try to fix up some new sandbags this weekend.

Are you ready for the storm? Do you have a Family Disaster Plan and a well-stocked Disaster Kit? If you live on the Gulf Coast, you should have one ready. If Isaac doesn't come your way, the next storm might.

Tips for Safe Homes

The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes® offers tips and resources for families preparing in advance of Tropical Storm Isaac. Resources include emergency plywood shutter installation, evacuation tips and items for hurricane emergency kits.

As Tropical Storm Isaac moves west, the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH)® encourages families to take steps now to properly prepare themselves and their homes for severe conditions. 

"As this storm approaches, families may be tempted to take out a roll of tape for the windows but taping offers no protection against tropical storm or hurricane damage," says Leslie Chapman-Henderson, President/CEO of FLASH. "Right now, families can follow the guidelines in our Protect Your Home in a FLASH toolkit to learn the correct ways to prepare for a hurricane. These free resources can help them get ready for Isaac or whatever else may come this hurricane season."

FLASH recommends these preparedness tips for families in the path of Tropical Storm Isaac:

Protect Your Home

• If you have hurricane shutters now is the time to install them. Make sure your shutters are working properly and fit securely to ensure proper protection.
• If you don't have shutters, install plywood, emergency shutters. Never use tape on windows as hurricane protection. 
• Secure or relocate items outside the house that can blow around. Don't forget about trash cans, grills, toys and potted plants. Also, take time to look for any dead tree limbs and remove them carefully if you have time.

Have an evacuation plan for your home. Before you leave be sure to:

• Turn off the water, gas and electricity  
• Leave a note that you have left and where you are going
• Be sure to lock your home

Prepare Your Family

• Review your family emergency plan. Be sure to review and update any evacuation plans.
• Ensure your family emergency kit is complete. Your kit should include, at a minimum:

             o Enough food and water for all members
                of the family, including pets, to last at
                least 72 hours
             o Extra cash on hand since an extended power 
                outage may prevent you from withdrawing
                money from ATM's or banks
             o A battery powered and NOAA weather radio 
             o First aid kit and toiletries
             o Flashlights and extra batteries
             o Blankets, pillows, extra clothes, toys and games
                to keep the family comfortable and occupied
             o Special needs items for babies, family members with special medical needs and pets

• Fill your gas tank; gas stations rely on electricity to power their pumps.
• Gather and store important paperwork like insurance papers, mortgage documents, marriage certificates, etc. in waterproof containers.

If the Power Goes Out

• Do not run a generator inside a home or garage. Use gas-powered generators only in well-ventilated areas.
• Connect only individual appliances to portable generators.
• Don't plug emergency generators into electric outlets or hook them directly to your home's electrical system - as they can feed electricity back into the power lines, putting you and line workers in danger.
• When power comes back on, it may come back with momentary, "surges" or "spikes" that can damage equipment such as computers and motors in appliances like the air conditioner, refrigerator, washer or furnace.
• When power is restored, wait a few minutes before turning on major appliances to help eliminate further problems caused by a sharp increase in demand.

This is a press release prepared by FLASH. For more hurricane preparedness tips visit www.flash.org or call 877-221-SAFE.

Ten Minutes to Leave

June 2012 was a month of extremes. Extreme dry weather and heat led to dozens of massive wildfires in the western United States. Extreme rainfall - some related to Tropical Storm Debby, some from thunderstorms- flooded homes, businesses and streets.

Some people had just minutes to grab what they could and leave their homes.

If you had ten minutes, at most, to leave your house - perhaps forever - what would you take?

Lives - children and pets - come first, of course.

But then what?

Your computer? Or portable hard drive with all those digital photos you can't replace? Do you have old family photo albums or treasured heirlooms? Valuable jewelry? A change of clothes?

It is impossible to keep everything packed all the time, but you can ease your mind a little bit by having an emergency bag handy with a change or two of clothes for each family member, some cheap toothbrushes and other toiletries.

Make copies of all your important documents: insurance policies and cards, ID and birth certificates, lists of bank accounts and credit cards with contact phone numbers. Put the copies in your emergency bag or in your disaster kit along with your non-perishable food and flashlights. Alternatively, invest in a portable, locking, fire- and water-resistant document box and keep any documents and copies there. It'll be safer if left behind, but if it's small, you can grab it along with your suitcase and disaster kit.

Next, make a list. Start with the obvious things first:

• purse
• cell phone
• laptop
• emergency suitcase
• disaster kit
• document lockbox

Make sure you add those things you can't really pack in advance - that pearl necklace you inherited from your great grandmother, the portable hard drive where your photos are stored, your child's favorite blanket or toy.

By making the list when you're calm, you can make decisions about what's most important, what you can fit in your vehicle, and you'll be sure not to forget the most important things. You'll also be able to make your getaway faster, because you'll know what to grab and where it is. You'll have a plan. You won't waste precious minutes standing in the middle of the room asking yourself, "What should I take?

You'll already know.

Here are some links to help you get started:

Build a Kit
Be Red Cross Ready

Strange Season

What a strange hurricane season this has been. Two named storms before June first, and two in  June, so far. Hurricane Chris didn't make landfall, and Tropical Storm Debby hasn't yet, but will, eventually.

The biggest problem with Debby is that it's such a wet storm, just loitering off the Florida coast and dumping copious amounts of rain. That means flooding for a lot of people.

Any Gulf storm is going to send higher tides and bigger waves to coastal communities, and that brings erosion and some flooding.

Debby spun off some damaging tornadoes in South Florida and did some wind damage. For example, it has snapped off several old or rotted trees and knocked them onto nearby homes.

I look at a Debby, and I say, it's no big deal. It's just a tropical storm. But look at the damage this little storm is doing and imagine if Debby had become a hurricane or a major hurricane.

 

That's why it's so important to do preventative maintenance, to have a disaster plan, to build an emergency kit. That way, if the "little storm" brings more damage than you're expecting, you're ready. If it grows into a big storm, you're prepared.

Have you been putting off tree trimming, fixing a loose gutter, or cleaning out the drains around your home? If you live in hurricane country, don't put it off too long. It can be tough to find the money and the time, but it will cost you more in the long run, if a storm comes.