Almost over for another year

The 2010 hurricane is almost over, at least as far as the official dates go. Every now and then we'll see a December storm or even one in January. They're usually Atlantic storms that don't come close to land. 

This year's season wasn't quite a record-breaker. From Alex in June to Tomas, which kicked up in October and fizzled out ten days ago, we saw a total of 19 named storms. Twelve of those storms were hurricanes, and five reached major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher). 2010 is (tied with 1995 and 1887) the third busiest hurricane season in the past 160 years. 

The busiest, well I don't need to look that one up. It was 2005, the year that Dennis and Katrina hit my area. That season brought 27 named storms - and four of them blew up between November 18 and January 6, 2006. What was I just saying about post-season storms? 

I read one article that stated that none of the storms this season hit the United States. While technically true -- none of the storms made landfall on a U.S. coastline -- the storms did impact the United States. Hermine made landfall in Mexico but quickly moved into Texas. Several storms passed close by and/or dissipated right off the Gulf Coast or Eastern Seaboard. Storms in the Gulf put the BP oil spill clean-up on hold a couple of times. 

I'm not saying that we weren't lucky. We were very lucky. It seems impossible that in a year with 19 named storms, the U.S. didn't get hit. Not that I'm complaining! If you'd like to review the 2010 season and learn more about the storms and statistics of 2010, visit Wikipedia. For historical data on storms going back over a hundred years, check out Unisys Weather.* Now, time to start moving those canned goods out of the emergency kit and using them for winter meals.

*UPDATE Unisys changed hands, and the historical hurricane data has been removed from their website. 

Be Aware and Prepared

If you live in a coastal community, it's your responsibility to know what's happening in the tropics between June 1 and November 30, the official dates of hurricane season. 

Of course, hurricanes don't have calendars and can occur at any time of year, but the worst ones typically happen during these months. 

The reason I bring this up is that while the American media tends to overhype everything, other interests in the Atlantic and Gulf regions may not. 

Consider this: On September 12, after looking at the National Hurricane Center's track (right) and the computer models for Hurricane Igor, I visited the website for The Royal Gazette, the newspaper for Bermuda. I found no mention of Igor, though the paper does maintain an online "Hurricane Awareness" section. I tweeted my surprise: It always amazes me that Bermuda's Royal Gazette doesn't carry advance information on hurricanes that will pass close to or hit the island. 

7:33 PM Sep 12th via web I received this response: "We do, but unless it is going to be a direct threat, it does not much of a story" 

Two or three days later, I didn't note the date, one article about Igor did appear in the online edition. The tone was, to my mind, very non-committal, like the Weather Service and/or the reporter were reluctant to get anyone overly excited, in case the storm didn't affect the island. Saturday, the front page is full of reports about Igor. The storm's outer bands have already reached Bermuda, with the eye expected to pass very close to the island on Sunday evening.

The Royal Gazette's handling of the Igor story is the opposite of how U.S. mainstream media operates. The Weather Channel, cable news, and local news outlets focus so much attention on a potential disaster, that viewers get sick of hearing about it or begin disbelieving the "hype." I don't know if it's because I worked in the news business for seven years or because I've been through a major hurricane or both, but hype or not, I'd rather have as much advance notice as possible. What about you?

Earl is on the Way

If you live in North Carolina or Virginia, there's a good chance you're going to feel the force of Earl later this week. Earl is presently a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and higher gusts. The storm is over 400 miles wide!

Even if the eye of the storm stays off shore, hurricane force winds (sustained winds of 70mph or higher) extend outward from the eye up to 70 miles. Tropical storm force winds (39mph or higher) extend up to 200 miles from the eye.

The current track, always subject to change by a few degrees, brings the eye fairly close to the North Carolina coast. East coast residents should expect wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding. Be prepared for power outages. Pick up potential flying objects from your yard. Keep a close eye on the forecast tracks in case anything changes.

Be safe.

Earl Moves West, Where Next?

Earl is a little more south and west today than the National Hurricane Center was predicting on Thursday. That the track is as accurate as it is, is a testament to the knowledge that forecasters have about how storms move and to the computer tools that crunch the data. They're doing a marvelous job.

However, weather forecasting is a system of educated guesses. The fact that the track was a little off is to be expected. That's why they have that big cone of uncertainty around the track. One little wobble, one slight deviation can send the storm hundreds of miles in a different direction.

If you live in the Caribbean Islands you should be ready to feel the storm's effects, and as Earl makes up his mind which way he's going next, I encourage anyone living on the Eastern Seaboard, particularly in the Carolinas or Virginia, to make preliminary preparations for Earl's passing.

Hopefully, you already did some prep work for Danielle and breathed a big sigh of relief when she stayed well east of U.S. shores. Think about the two or three days notice you might get if Earl ends up coming your way. What will you need to do during that time? What can you do now to save yourself time if the hurricane comes your way?

Many of my earlier posts on this blog offer suggestions for things to think about ahead of a natural disaster. You can also visit the links on my sidebar for checklists and tips for preparation.

Here are some ideas:

Before the storm:
Prepare your property for high winds and heavy rains.
Know if you need to evacuate or sandbag your home.
Be ready to prepare meals without electricity or running water.
Care for your family's health, and that includes the family pets.

After the storm:
Make temporary repairs.
File insurance claims.
Notify friends, family and co-workers of your situation.
Will you have to report for work? Or will you be living without a paycheck?

Please don't wait until the last minute to think things through.
You'll need to remain calm and take quick action if the storm turns your way.
Advance planning is the key.

Double Whammy in the Atlantic

If I lived on the island of Bermuda or in a coastal community on the Eastern Seaboard, I would buy some extra water and canned goods, make sure I had fresh batteries for the radio and flashlights, and keep a close eye on Hurricane Danielle.

Danielle is currently a category 2 hurricane and is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center shows Danielle continuing to travel north in the Atlantic, with the eye passing to the east of Bermuda, but several computer models show the storm making a sharp turn to the west, which could take it into one of the mid-Atlantic states. And even if the storm's eye misses Bermuda, the island is still likely to get some high winds, heavy surf and flooding.

The effects of a hurricane can reach hundreds of miles from the eye. When Hurricanes Gustav and Ike crossed the Gulf in 2008, they were hundreds of miles from Northwest Florida's Gulf Coast, but low-lying areas and waterfront properties still experienced storm surge-related flooding.

What's the harm of stocking up on a few supplies now? You can still drink the water and eat the food, even if the storm doesn't hit and you don't lose power. You'll still use the batteries in your cameras, toys, or remote controls. If the storm does come your way, you'll be glad you hit the grocery store before the frenzy started, plus you'll gain time to do all the other prep needed before a hurricane strike.

While you're keeping an eye on Danielle, watch Tropical Storm Earl as well. The computer models are showing Earl following a similar track to Danielle, although none of them are showing Earl turning to the west. At least not yet.

I won't rest easy until it actually makes the northerly turn that everyone's predicting. Right now, it's aimed squarely towards the Gulf.

Tropical Depression 6 could get a name soon.

The last tropical low that was expected to get a name, never did gain that much strength. Good for us. Tropical depression 6, now swirling in the Atlantic, is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm in the next few hours and could be a hurricane by Monday. It's headed toward the general area of Bermuda, and no matter which way it goes, the island nation should be prepared for higher than normal tides and lots of strong waves.

TS Danielle

Tropical Depression 5 has formed in the Gulf and is expected to become Tropical Storm Danielle by morning. The storm is forecast to cross over the Deepwater Horizon oil leak area and make landfall in Louisiana on Thursday. Don't know what this will mean for the capping and clean-up efforts. Folks on the coast can expect heavy waves and strong tides, possible flooding. Be safe, everyone.