Hurricane Safety

Is Your Community Ready?

2011-09-14T20:01:00.000-07:00

After the hurricane-busy summers of 2004 and 2005, I remember some of the hold-ups for getting aid into stricken areas.

DISTRIBUTION SITES

FEMA may be ready to bring in water, ice, and other supplies, immediately after a disaster, but where and how will that be distributed to people in need?

After Ivan, a line of cars, and another long line of people on foot would snake around the parking lot where trucks were passing out water and ice. Permission had to be obtained from the parking lot owner. The parking lot had to be clear of debris and downed power lines. The roads in and out of that area had to be clear for traffic. The sites needed to be in areas accessible to a lot of people, including people who don't have their own cars or maybe didn't have enough gas in their tanks to sit in a line of traffic for two hours.

Major roads or airport tarmacs in the disaster area must also be cleared. The trucks are usually waiting nearby, loaded with supplies. Our local power company sent a caravan of linemen and other personnel to the area about to be hit by Hurricane Irene. They traveled most of the way a day or two before the storm made landfall, so they could move in immediately after the storm passed to start putting power lines back together.

Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005) both destroyed major roads and bridges, cutting off that route into the disaster area. That meant everyone who evacuated merged with everyone coming to help and they crawled along a secondary route. Necessary detours and traffic jams can add hours to the process of bringing in supplies and other aid.

These things have to be coordinated with local emergency management officials. If they haven't thought through potential disaster scenarios (hurricane, tornado, earthquake, flood, disease, fire, terrorist attack), they may find themselves playing catch-up. Hopefully, your city or county has created a disaster playbook that will allow them to provide instructions quickly and easily to FEMA and other agencies and help them communicate what's happening to residents and aid workers.

We don't like to think about worst case scenarios, but it's the only way to effectively prepare for disaster.

After Disaster: How to Help

2011-09-01T22:16:00.000-07:00

Making a Difference with Your Group

If your church or civic organization wants to take aid to areas hit by a disaster, you need a plan. Sure, you can load your truck with hand tools and water and head to the disaster area with the best intentions, but it’s much better to make contact with someone in the area and know exactly what you’ll be doing and what to bring along.

Repairs and Rebuilding

If you have able-bodied people with carpentry or DIY skills, you can help people make repairs to their homes. Figure out who you are going to help before you leave and take all the materials and tools you need with you.

For the first couple of weeks, until electricity is restored, power tools are useless unless you have your own generator, extension cords and plenty of gasoline. If you are going to replace roofs, you need to know what kind of roof you’ll be working on, do you need shingles or rolled roofing? How big is the house? Will you need plywood, OSB or planks to repair a damaged structure or are you just replacing shingles?

Cleaning Up

Bring trash bags, bar magnets for picking up nails, and disinfectant wipes. Unless you know for sure that water is running to the home where you’re working, bring your own water tanks for washing hands or cleaning tools. Discuss with the homeowner or resident whether you can leave your trash bags there for pick-up. If access to the area is difficult because of damage, the garbage trucks may not be running. You may need to take your trash to a landfill or another area designated for debris. See if you can find out whether any fees are being charged at those sites. The local government will probably seek reimbursement from FEMA rather than charging people whose homes sustained damage, but it’s better to find out before you get there.

Feeding the Hungry

In a disaster area where power is out, a hot meal is a blessing to disaster victims, first responders, utility crews, and volunteers. If you want to help feed the army, you need a portable cooking trailer or a commercial kitchen, perhaps available through a church or community center. Before you leave home, determine what resources you can take with you and what will be available where you’re going. If you need bottles of LP gas, charcoal for a grill, a generator and gasoline – take it with you.

Don’t assume you’ll be able to buy what you need in the disaster area. Many stores will be closed and those that are open may not be restocked for a couple of weeks due to roads being closed or lack of electricity. Decide what you’re cooking and look at a recipe. You may have made your grandma’s goulash a thousand times, but that doesn’t mean you’ll remember to pack the salt without reading the recipe or making a list.

You’ll need serving utensils, plasticware, paper or Styrofoam plates, and napkins, as well as salt and pepper shakers (or those little packets), ketchup and other condiments. Try to think through the whole process of cooking the meal, from start to finish and make a list of everything. Ask a couple of other people to look at the list. They may remember something you didn’t.

Clothing Donations

After any natural disaster in our region, the newsroom where I work would be inundated with calls from people asking where they can donate clothing. It’s understandable. You can clean out your closet and give to people who may have lost everything but the clothes on their back.

Unless you are gathering items for a specific family and you have their sizes, don’t even think about it.

After Hurricane Katrina, mountains of clothing sat in parking lots getting rained on, because no one was available to sort and distribute it. Also, thrift stores will tell you that they throw away a lot of clothing donations because they really should be trashed due to stains or other wear-and-tear.

The best way to use your old clothes to help disaster victims is to look first at every piece and ask if you would want to receive it if you’d just lost everything. Be honest. Then hold a yard sale to sell it and donate the money for disaster aid.

Break Time

No matter what you are doing in the disaster area, you should bring plenty of food and water for everyone on your team and a good first aid kit. Resources are very limited after a natural disaster.

NOAA Gets It Spot On

2011-08-31T22:52:00.000-07:00

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration got the track of Hurricane Irene exactly right. Click on the link and watch the video. About 7 seconds in, the satellite image will pause for a second and you'll see the forecast track overlaid. Watch as the eye follows the track exactly.

NOAA Video

Hurricane forecasting is not an exact science, but I think this video shows that the NOAA and National Hurricane Center has developed a real knack for using their weather forecasting tools, historical evidence, and the various ensemble models from agencies and universities around the world to give us a forecast that gives people in the storm's path the best chance to prepare and protect their homes, businesses, and families.

Excellent work, NOAA!

Hurricane Aid: How Can I Help

2011-08-29T20:01:00.000-07:00

First an earthquake, then a hurricane. The mid-Atlantic states were slammed in August 2011. If you’re not in that area, and you want to help those who are, here are some ways you can make a difference.

Help Someone You Know

Do you have friends or family in the affected area? Maybe a former co-worker has moved up there or someone you deal with for work is based there. Ask them how they are doing and what they need. Keep in mind that the mail may not run for a few days until roads are cleared of debris or flood waters recede, so it may be hard to meet immediate needs. Of course, if the person evacuated, depending on where they went, you can meet them or send them something to where they’re staying.

Work As a Group

Churches and civic organizations often travel to the affected area, taking supplies like water, non-perishable food, school supplies and clothing (for people who lost their homes). They may help people clean up their yards or repair damage. Sometimes, if they have a portable food trailer available or can arrange to use an available kitchen in the area, they prepare and serve meals, so people who live in the community have one less thing to worry about; they can just sit down and eat.

Give to Reputable Charities

The American Red Cross and Salvation Army will provide food, water and ice to people whose electricity is out or those living in shelters because their homes are flooded or destroyed. They also help people who lost everything get some clothing or shelter while they’re waiting for insurance payments (assuming they have insurance). Organizations like that have systems to help make sure the money gets to people who legitimately need it. Of course, someone’s always going to fool the system, and those are the ones you hear about, but these charities really do help those in need.

Don’t Forget the Animals

Many animals will end up in shelters because they got separated from their owners or maybe some didn’t have homes but they got picked up during the massive sweeps that will go through the hard-hit areas. You can send money to an animal charity, such as the Humane Society or ASPCA that serves one of the disaster areas. A lot of pet rescue organizations will also go into help rescue trapped, injured or traumatized animals, and they’ll need money to buy food, bottled water for the animals and their workers, and supplies to help clean up and treat the pets.

Beware of Scams

After a disaster, the con artists come out. You may see pleas for help on Facebook or online forums. Someone may come to your door and say they evacuated to your community from North Carolina and can you help them. Scammers will make phone calls to random numbers asking you to give money to help those in need. Be wary. Don’t give to someone who calls you on the phone. Don’t click on links in emails to “donate now.” It’s much better for you to look up the organization you want to give to and call them or find their website on your own to donate. Emails that may look like they’re coming from an legitimate organization can still be fakes.

Dangerous Even at a Distance

2011-08-23T22:46:00.000-07:00

In August 2009, a few dozen people in New England went down to the shore to watch Hurricane Bill go by. The storm sent furious waves crashing onto the rocks, sweeping several people into the water. A seven-year-old girl drowned.

This is Bill's track. You can get a closer look at the map at Unisys Weather. As you can see, the storm just barely brushed the U.S. coastline, but it was still violent enough to claim a child's life.

Please don't look at a dot on the map and think that because a hurricane is far out to see, that you're safe. Your safer than if it made landfall by your house. But even out to sea, a hurricane can still pack a deadly punch.

Be safe.

Rock Me Like a Hurricane

2011-08-23T22:36:00.000-07:00

The U.S. Eastern Seaboard is getting slammed this week with double disasters. A 5.8 magnitude quake centered in Virginia shook the earth from Georgia to Canada on Tuesday, and Hurricane Irene is pelting the Bahamas with a triptych that takes the storm right along the U.S. coastline.

Even if Irene never makes landfall in the U.S., a powerful hurricane off shore -- even hundreds of miles off shore -- will have an impact on coastal communities. Hurricanes are often hundreds of miles across, so if the eye of the storm is 150 miles out to see, coastal areas could still get battered by high winds, drenched by rain, and flooded from storm surge.

If you live on the East Coast of the United States, I urge you to make sure you have bottled water and non-perishable food in your home in case of power outages. Check your first aid kit and make sure it's stocked with the essentials. Know where your insurance papers are. Pick up extra batteries for your radio and flashlights. Be aware if you're in a flood zone. Prepare your home by securing lawn furniture and moving anything inside that could become a missile in high winds. If advised, protect your windows with shutters, aluminum roofing sheets or plywood.

Watch the storm's progress on TV or use the National Hurricane Center website. Pay attention to any local advisories. Be safe.

The National Hurricane Center is watching two more areas of disturbed weather right behind Irene.

Disturbances in the Atlantic

2011-08-10T19:28:00.000-07:00

Doesn't that title sound like a ghost story? Disturbances or low pressure systems or tropical waves are kind of ghostlike, at least from here on shore. I'm sure that if you were in the Atlantic, in the middle of one of those disturbances, it would be a pretty strong thunderstorm. Sitting comfortably on land, looking at the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Prediction page, they look like little blobby ghosts. Ephemeral things that may never develop into anything stronger than a thunderstorm.

A few years ago, the only things that showed up on the National Hurricane Center's website were tropical depressions and named storms. I think it was probably in response to people like me that they started including information about areas they were watching. You see, I'd go to the NHC to look for depressions or check on named storms, but then I'd hit Weather Underground or Crown Weather to see what else was on the horizon. This was after 2004 -- "summer of the storm" -- when Florida got hit by four named storms, and 2005 the year that we had so many storms -- including Katrina -- that we ran out of letters of the alphabet and started calling the named storms by Greek letters (Alpha, Beta, etc.).

So now we have the blobs. Yellow blobs are areas that could develop but probably won't. Orange areas have a better than 30% chance of turning into a depression or worse. Red areas are very likely to become something stronger.

I look at this map and I see storms extending across the Florida peninsula. A good portion of the storm is over land, so it's not going to develop unless it moves out to sea. The NHC says it's moving east-northeast, so it'll go into the Atlantic and if it develops there, it probably won't cause much trouble for anyone. The yellow blob in the upper Atlantic won't develop; the waters are cooler up there. The orange blob -- there's a troublemaker. Unless there are wind shears or something to break it down, well, 'tis the season and the worst part of the season at that. It'll develop. It's little sister, tagging behind, will most likely develop, too.

I went over to Weather Underground, where sure enough they're showing computer models for those two blobs. That means the forecasters consider them a serious enough threat to consider potential tracks. Sometimes I hate being right.

Could they still break up? Absolutely. Look at Emily -- a full-fledged tropical storm, one day expected to become a hurricane, the next day fizzled out to nothing. Sometimes we get lucky.

All the hurricane forecasters were anticipating a "busier than usual" year, and we haven't had that much activity yet. Still, August through the first couple of weeks of October are typically the busiest times for hurricanes.

And that gives those of us on the coast plenty to be disturbed about.

Tropical Storm Emily

2011-08-01T22:01:00.000-07:00

Tropical Storm Emily started as a tropical wave in the southern Atlantic a few days ago. The National Hurricane Center is now tracking Emily, which is expected to hit several Caribbean islands before brushing against the east coast of Florida next weekend.

Of course, it's dangerous to look at the track now and assume that's where the storm is going.

The computer models have been steadily shifting west for the past few days, and if it shifts much more to the west, it'll come into the Gulf.

Looking at the national maps from the National Weather Service, an area of high pressure seems to be forming or moving across the Gulf and parts of the northern Gulf Coast. That could be what hurricane forecasters are looking at to keep the storm moving north in the Atlantic. Certainly if it shifts west and comes into the Gulf, that High could keep it to the eastern part of the Gulf.

If you live on a southeastern U.S. coastline, this storm bears watching.

Choosing a Radio for Your Disaster Kit

2011-06-19T23:15:00.000-07:00

"What radio should I buy for my hurricane safety kit?"

When that question came up, I was surprised. I thought buying a radio was a pretty simple thing. Then I realized some of the complications.

WEATHER BAND RADIO
A weather radio receives alerts from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This is great if you want to hear tornado watches or warnings, flood advisories, and statements from the National Hurricane Center. The computerized voice can be a little difficult to understand sometimes; at least it was the last time I listened to my weather radio. I had mine on during the last hurricane and got really irritated with flood warnings out of Mobile, Alabama. It's a really low-lying area. They have major flooding issues every time it rains. A programmable weather radio is supposed to let you receive only the warnings, watches, alerts and advisories relevant to your area, but I thought I had mine set right. The local NWS office is in Mobile, so I don't think there's a way to stop the flood advisories. It was too much for me, so I turned it off until it was time for the next hurricane update. These start at $15 to $20.

AM/FM
The radio stations you like to listen to in your car are either on AM or FM. In my area, when a hurricane is coming, the television stations will go into 24 hour mode -- all hurricane, all the time -- and some of the stations will simulcast the TV signal. That way, if your power and/or cable goes out, you can still get information over any AM or FM radio. You can get a decent AM/FM radio with a small telescoping antenna for $8 to $12 at department stores or online. Try it out at home and make sure you can pick up a variety of local stations loud and clear.

COMBO
You can get radios that pick up AM/FM stations and NOAA, for about the same price or a little more than buying a weather band radio alone.

CONSIDER THE (POWER) SOURCE
Most portable radios are powered by batteries. Always check your batteries at the beginning of hurricane season and make sure you have extras on hand. Never store batteries in the radio. They burst or leak acid over time. Trust me. I know from experience. You can store batteries in the refrigerator and they'll last longer, but be sure to let them warm up to room temperature (and dry off any condensation) before putting them into your electronic device.

Many radios are now available that use alternate sources of power. These are fantastic if you have a long-term power outage. You won't have to worry about replacing or recharging batteries. Here are some of the options:

SOLAR POWER - These usually require several hours of exposure to direct sunlight to recharge. This is perfect if the weather is clear and sunny, and if you have a window that gets full sunlight all day. I was not comfortable leaving my solar radio sitting outside all day while I was at work.

DYNAMO-HAND CRANK - These are the type that you basically wind-up. You can wind for a couple of minutes and get enough power for a weather forecast. You do have to crank for some time to get a full charge.

ALTERNATE SOURCES - Rarer types of battery-free radios (and flashlights) will let you shake the item or use a sort of "squeeze pump" handle to generate power. I have a flashlight with the squeeze handle, and I prefer it over the hand-crank variety. I haven't tried the shake-it-up type.

If you need a cheap radio in a hurry, any battery-operated radio that will pick up AM and/or FM stations in your area should work. Again, be sure to test the radio and make sure you can get clear signals from several local stations or return it to the store and start over. If you can't pick up anything clearly in good weather, you sure won't be able to get important information during heavy wind and rain or after several towers get blown down in the storm.

Finally, check with your local TV and radio stations to find out who will simulcast in an emergency. Around here, several of the TV stations put out hurricane prep guides and they list reliable sources of information. In my area, we have one radio company that is locally owned; they operate two stations, and they provide really good around-the-clock coverage during disasters. The big national-conglomerate-owned stations are typically the ones who'll simulcast one of the local TV stations.

WINNER: Thunder of Time novel

2011-06-19T21:41:00.001-07:00

Congratulations to Jim Coyne. Jim has 72 hours to send his postal mailing address, and I'll ship out the prize. Thanks to everyone who visited the blog and posted a comment.

Saving Family Documents

2011-06-13T19:38:00.000-07:00

Much of the southern United States is experiencing a really bad wildfire season. Communities near the Mississippi experienced devastating floods this year. Tornado season has been much worse than usual, and hurricane season is just beginning.

If you had to grab your belongings and leave in a matter of minutes - or even with two or three days notice - would you be able to quickly take with you the documents you'd need to prove your identity, file an insurance claim, or have utilities cut off?

It's a good idea to keep copies of those important documents in your disaster kit, so they go with you in an emergency. You can scan them and keep a password protected CD or flash drive with all the files, or just make hard copies (in case you can't get to a computer).

Here's what you need:

Property Insurance Policy
Auto Insurance Policy
Health Insurance Cards
Driver's License or ID card for each family member
Utility bills - recent statements or a list that includes account numbers and customer service phone numbers
Credit card bills - recent statements or a list of account numbers and customer service phone numbers
Loan details - including mortgages, personal loans, auto loans, store credit - with account and phone numbers
Subscriptions and memberships - for any regular mailings, be sure you know how to change your address

This is just for starters. These are the major things you'll need to file a claim, change your mailing address, cancel or shut off utilities, and make payment arrangements. Consider each individual in your home and determine if you have other documents that may be important. Marriage licenses, legal contracts, medical records - think carefully about what you might need if you were forced to leave your house for weeks or perhaps forever.

Don't wait until you need to leave to assemble these documents. You'll make your life a lot easier if you can grab your emergency kit and know that everything you need is inside.

Are You Ready for a Zombie Apocalypse?

2011-06-12T17:16:00.000-07:00

This is pretty funny, but it also makes good sense. The Centers for Disease Control have issued a statement to help you get ready for a Zombie Apocalypse. Why would the CDC do this?

In the 21st century, most zombie apocalypses are caused by a virus. Watch 28 Days Later. The CDC investigates infectious diseases, and they also want people to be prepared for any disease outbreak.

Which would you rather prepare for:

Bird Flu
SARS
Mad Cow Disease
Swine Flu
Zombie Apocalypse

I bet you said #5.

So, the CDC put out a bulletin encouraging everyone to be ready for a Zombie Apocalypse, with reminders that if you're ready for a Zombie Apocalypse, you're also ready for other emergencies and disasters.

Better safe than sorry.

Cooking by Candlelight

2011-06-08T22:35:00.000-07:00

Ever since hurricane season started on June 1, it seems like there's been some disturbed area being watched by the National Hurricane Center. To be honest, some wet weather (but not a Tropical Storm or Hurricane) would be pretty welcome in our area right now. The Florida Panhandle is down about 8-inches below normal rainfall this year so far.

Today, I thought I'd talk about some things you might be able to cook without power. First, what resources do you have available?

Gas Grill? Be sure to have a tank or two of propane on hand before the storm hits.
Charcoal Grill? Pick up bags of charcoal and lighter fluid, and be sure you have some way to douse any stray sparks.
Natural gas range or oven? In my experience, gas service is usually still available after a hurricane, but of course, if the provider thinks that any lines were damaged or if your home sustains damage, the service may be turned off.
Camp stove? If you go camping, you may have something that runs off propane, solar power or batteries. Make sure you have the supplies you need to run the stove.
Bonfire? With all the downed trees, it's tempting to kill two birds with one stone and have a weinie roast over an open fire. The big danger is that if the fire gets out of control, firefighters may not be able to get to you and may not have the water pressure to fight it. If you have a way to contain the flames - say a sturdy metal barrel with a grate on top, you'll be safer that way. Set up your barrel at least 25 feet from any structures. If you don't have water running through your hose, have some water on hand (rainwater that's collected, a couple of bucketfuls from the bathtub), so you can make sure the ashes are wet through when you're done. Hot spots in dry ash can smoulder for days and any ember that flies out can set something on fire.

Never burn anything in your house. You wouldn't want to anyway, I'm sure, because of the heat and no air conditioning in the summer, but in addition to fire dangers, smoke inhalation and carbon monoxide poisoning can be deadly. Don't risk it.

It's a good plan to always think about the worst possible thing that could happen and how you will respond to it and prevent a worse catastrophe.

The benefit of having a way to cook, of course, is that the food in your freezer can be used instead of thrown away. If you can even just heat water, you can prepare instant foods like macaroni and cheese, mashed potatoes, grits, oatmeal, soup, coffee, and more. It's a great way to vary your menu when you get to week two or three without electricity.

What do you like to eat when you don't have any power available?

Book Giveaway: Temperal Storms

2011-06-07T21:45:00.000-07:00

Imagine a storm blowing in that, instead of tearing things up, it removes everything from the present to the past, and vice versa. One minute, there's a house across the street; the next minute, you're staring at a dinosaur that wants to eat you for lunch.That's what happens in James F. David's novel Thunder of Time. It's actually a sequel to David's Footprints of Thunder, but you can definitely read the second book without having read the first one, because that's what I did.

Thunder of Time begins ten years after the events of the first novel. Everyone thought the time displacements were over, but now they're happening again, and with increasing regularity. A team of experts spans the globe, trying to figure out why the displacements are happening and how to stop them. Their investigations suggest that the displacements are being orchestrated. But who would do that, and why?

I thought the book was really interesting. It has a huge cast of characters, but the author has helpfully included their names and short biographies at the beginning, so if you forget who someone is, you can look them up. For the most part, it has a well thought out plot that comes together pretty nicely at the end. Many times, James David had me wondering how they could possibly get out of things alive.

That said, I think it probably could have been a little shorter and less convoluted. I dislike situations where we are inside the mind of the villain, but we don't know who s/he is or exactly what s/he's up to. I'd rather not meet the villain at all until the heroes lead us to him/her or alternatively, just come out and tell me who he is.

Some of the multiple-time-frames/alternate time lines stuff near the end got a bit tedious, but overall, I thought the author did some clever things as the characters pass from past to present to different time stream.

WIN!

I purchased this book new, and read it once. It's in good condition from a non-smoking household.
FIRST ENTRY: Comment here with the name of your favorite dinosaur book or movie and why you like it so much.
EXTRA ENTRIES: For each item you complete, leave another comment here and be sure to include a link to your tweets or to the non-giveaway post that you commented on. Make sure that you leave your email address in the comment OR that it’s part of your profile, so I can find it.
*leave a relevant comment on any non-giveaway post on this Hurricane Safety blog (1)
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You can earn a maximum of six entries per household. Eligible comments must be made no later than 11:59pm ET on June 18, 2011. Entrants must be 18 or older, with shipping addresses in the United States or military APO/FPO addresses. One winner will be selected by random drawing on June 19 and notified by email. Winner must respond to this email with mailing address within 72 hours or another winner will be selected. Book will be sent media mail.

Hurricane Season Begins

2011-06-01T20:27:00.000-07:00

Another hurricane season is under way, which means that one of the first things I'll do every day is check out the National Hurricane Center website. If there's a full-fledged tropical storm or a hurricane in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf, the NHC will have full details on its strength and projected path.

On days like today, when there are low pressure systems that could develop into a cyclonic system, I'll follow up with a visit to Weather Underground. The more "serious" low pressure systems will be tracked by various forecasting centers, and the computer models will give you an idea of where that system will end up - whether it develops or not.

One note about computer models - the ones mapped out on sites like Weather Underground are typically ensemble models. For each ensemble model, or track, information from several different forecasting computers has been compiled to project the movement of the storm. Some sites will pictured the spaghetti models, and many of those are forecast tracks from a single computer.

What's the difference between the spaghetti models and the ensemble and the "official" track from the NHC?

The development and movement of a tropical system, or really any storm system, is dependent on a lot of different factors. High and low pressure systems, for example, affect how the storms move. Wind shear may weaken a storm. Warm waters strengthen them. Scientists have been studying hurricanes for years, so they know how all these different atmospheric and oceanic conditions may change the storm.

Once computers came along, they created software that lets them plug in all this data, and then the software analyzes it and says, "This is where the storm could be going and how strong it's likely to get on the way."

The differences in the models come from how the the software applies the knowledge. In one case, the software may not consider the movement of warm and cold ocean currents. Another program may give more weight to those same currents and place a lower priority on wind shear.

Here's an analogy.

Let's say that you wanted to determine the likelihood that someone can blow out all the candles on his/her birthday cake. The first thing you would do, if you were a forecaster, would be to collect information about past parties. Maybe you find some anecdotal evidence in old diaries ("Aunt Marge took a mighty break - she was a trained opera singer in her youth, after all - and with a great gust, she blew out all 40 of the candles on her cake."). You study birthday videos on YouTube and analyze the age, apparent lungworthiness, number of candles, and angle of approach. You take into consideration the presence of ceiling fans, air vents, and fireplaces. You pay poor college students a dollar a puff to blow out various types of candles in slightly different configurations on simulated cakes in common and unusual settings. You program your computer with all the data. Then, when Sissy's 16th birthday roles around, you plug in her age, the seriousness of her asthma, the brand of candles, the dimensions of the room, and the number of guests. You give it your best guess as to whether her birthday wish will come true.

Then you watch and see what really happens.

Weather forecasting is a guessing game.

To be sure, the guesses are very well educated, and forecasting has come a long way even in the past dozen years. The tools used to collect data are extremely sophisticated, and meteorologists have had a lot of storms to watch and study - 27 systems in 2005 alone. It will never be an exact science, because one little change in a weather system over the Rockies can ricochet down to the Gulf and slow a storm down or cause it to turn.

Why bother?

When a storm forms in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and we look at that photo of clouds over the ocean, we can't tell from that snapshot whether it's going to slam into the Gulf Coast of Florida in three weeks (Ivan, 2004) or if it's going to spin off harmlessly into the North Atlantic and dissipate in a week (Karl, 2004) or if it's going to lay waste to the Carolina coast two weeks later (Hugo, 1989). The computer models help narrow down which way the storm is going, giving those of us who live on a coastline advance warning, time to fill up the gas cans, buy extra (non-perishable) groceries, cook up the food in the freezer, and pack a bag (if you have to evacuate).

In an uncertain world, a little extra time to prepare is the best we can hope for.

The Warrior's Emergency Rations

2011-05-24T22:11:00.000-07:00

The start of hurricane season is one week away, and the weather over the continental U.S. is volatile. The forecasters at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University are predicting a busier-than-average year. With all that in mind, I hope coastal residents are making early preparations to take care of your home and family in case a storm hits your area.

One of the important considerations is food. Emergency management leaders in Escambia County, Florida, today encouraged people to have not just the 72 hours worth of supplies that the federal government recommends, but rather at least 96 hours worth of supplies. That's four days worth of food and water, instead of just three days.

Let's review:

One gallon of water per person per day. Don't forget to factor pets into your math.
Non-perishable food that doesn't require refrigeration or cooking.
If you plan on using canned goods, have a manual (not electric) can opener handy.
Paper plates are a great idea, since you may not have hot running water available.

I just discovered a new source for food with a long shelf-life. The company doesn't offer a lot of variety, but what they have is fun and will definitely keep through a couple of seasons, if needed.

CMMG is primarily a firearms company. They sell assault rifles and parts for assault rifles. As a sideline, they offer a few emergency rations.

Their Tactical Bacon comes in a black and white can with infographics on the back to demonstrate use.

For $15.95, you get nine ounces of fully cooked bacon which, the company says, will last up to ten years on the shelf. Once you open the can, though, you pretty much have to eat it right away, not that nine ounces will probably take you long to eat.

I can't see the top of the can, but it probably requires that manual can opener.

The company also makes sandwiches, which they call Sammiches, in two varieties: beef and pepperoni. The sandwiches are individually packaged and come vacuum sealed.

According to CMMG's website, each Sammich contains "300 calories of pure tactical goodness" and will last more than two years in your emergency kit, as long as it's stored at 80°F or less.

The cost is $5.95 each.

These are not the most economical addition to your disaster supplies. I placed one can of Tactical Bacon and a few Sammiches to my cart, and with the $10 shipping charge it came to over $50. If you can afford it, though, it would be a fun menu item to give to the guy(s) in your household, to help lighten the mood in the midst of catastrophe. Click here to shop.

I read about these products online. I have received no promotional consideration from CMMG, and I have no personal experience with the products.

Films for the Hurricane Party

2011-05-15T22:14:00.000-07:00

This list is really only good until the power goes out. Well, and some of the films on it aren't that good anyway. But this list is all in fun. What am I missing? What other films can you think of that focus on a hurricane or at least have it as a major plot device?

The Hurricane (1937)
Key Largo (1948)
Hurricane (TV 1974)
Condominium (TV 1980)
The Abyss (1989)
The Day After Tomorrow (2004)
Category 6: Day of Destruction (TV 2004)
Category 7: The End of the World (TV 2005)
Shutter Island (2010)

Please note: I have elected to list only fictional films here. Many documentaries exist that cover damage and recovery from storms, from the great hurricane that hit Galveston in 1900 to Katrina in 2005. They probably won't be as much fun to watch when a storm is bearing down on you.

Prefense Winner!

2011-05-15T19:31:00.000-07:00

The Randomizer picked comment #9, so Barbarawr is our winner! I'll be sending an email tonight. If I don't receive a response within 72 hours, I will pick an alternate.

Thank you to everyone who commented, and I hope you are all using the tips and advice on this blog to build your disaster kits.

Thanks also to Prefense for providing a great opportunity to the Hurricane Safety blog to try the product and to give a full-sized bottle away.

Disaster Strikes Again

2011-04-28T21:34:00.000-07:00

Have you been watching the stories about the devastating tornadoes that hit Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia, as well as several other states on Wednesday? It's terrifying to think about something that large and powerful coming right at you with only a few minutes warning.

Some people didn't even hear a traditional warning. I heard stories about several people who had called to check on family or friends and that phone call was the only warning they had to get to shelter. I saw an interview with a truck driver who sought shelter under an overpass, and he told the homeless man he found there to hold on.

HOW DO YOU FIND OUT?

I don't think my area has tornado sirens. I don't remember hearing any when I worked downtown and one passed by a few blocks from my office. Of course, a lot of us were on our computers. If you're on Facebook or Twitter and you see people talking about a twister, even if you don't get specific information there, you at least know to check the news websites, the National Weather Service or other sources of official information.

Would you have had the maximum warning (24 minutes, I think they said) or would you have known about the tornado only when you heard the roaring of a freight train outside your home or office?
Do you have a plan in place for reconnecting with your family? A lot of people were at work or at school when the tornadoes starting forming Wednesday afternoon. If your home was destroyed, if roads were impassible, if cell towers and phone lines were down -- what would you do to find your loved ones?
Have you thought about how to notify family or close friends who live outside your area?
Do you have copies of important documents stored somewhere safe? It's not a bad idea to place copies of important papers - insurance documents and ID, a list of phone numbers for credit cards and utilities - in a bank vault, with a trusted family member out of town or even store them electronically (with password protection) "on the cloud." You'll need to know who to call if your home is destroyed.

It's never easy to imagine such utter destruction striking your life, but advance preparation can make a huge difference in what happens after disaster hits. I think about those poor people whose homes are demolished, blown away, and if their only copy of their insurance paperwork was in the house, they don't have the phone number or their account number, and how much harder is it going to be to file a claim without having that information?

Think ahead. Plan ahead. Be ready.

I hope that all my readers are all right. If you are in the danger zone, please know that a lot of people are thinking of you and praying for you.

Long-Lasting Hand Sanitizer: WIN!

2011-04-24T16:39:00.000-07:00

In the aftermath of any natural catastrophe or man-made calamity, staying clean and healthy is a primary concern. When you don't have access to hot running water, you need some other way to clean your hands and ensure that you're not spreading germs or ingesting them with your food when you eat.

The U.S. government's Be Ready checklist suggests keeping moist towelettes in your disaster kit, and FEMA's disaster supply list includes waterless hand sanitizer. I bought two large bottles of alcohol-based hand sanitizer in 2005, and I can attest that it will last awhile, as both bottles are still mostly full. We'd use it more, but the heavy citrus fragrance is tough on my husband's allergies.

Prefense Foaming Hand Sanitizer

I'm pleased to say that the newest hand sanitizer in the house has just a light fragrance that dissipates after a few minutes, so I can use it around him more often. This new brand of hand sanitizer is called Prefense. I've been using it for the past couple of weeks, in order to write this review. Since my husband won't believe me when I saw I need a microscope in the kitchen, I have no way of testing the scientific claims, but I can tell you that it's easy to use, it absorbs or dissipates quickly, and it doesn't leave my skin feeling sticky or dry.

The 1.5 ounce bottle that I've been using is a great size for keeping in my purse, and it's within the TSA guidelines for carry-on liquids. Each spray, according to the company, will stay on your hands through ten hand washings, for at least 24 hours, so you don't have to constantly re-apply all day. That means your hand sanitizer will last longer and it's one less thing you have to worry about, whether you're cleaning up after a disaster, trying to avoid catching cold while you're working at a cash register during the Christmas season, or preparing a picnic in the park for your family reunion.

The Prefense website lists more than six-dozen bugs that its hand sanitizer protects against, including several types of staph bacteria, flu viruses, germs, molds and fungi.

How does it work?

In a 2009 press release, Prefense president Aaron Powers described how the product works. “Ours is a silicone based product made up of zillions of tiny micro filaments,” Powers said. “And instead of shrinking or poisoning pathogens into submission like alcohol based products, Prefenz literally slits the cell’s wall and destroys it on contact. That means there’s no opportunity for these cells to mutate and to come back as some kind of new super strain.”

Cool, huh? Oh, I should explain that the product has also been marketed as PrefenzBotanicals, and that's what the labeling says on the bottle I received, but it's the same as Prefense.

Prefense contains just four ingredients: Amosilq Silica Complex, water, cocamidopropyl betaine, and essential oil fragrance. You know what water and fragrance are, and I'll try to tell you a little about the other two.

I looked up cocamidopropyl betaine on the Environmental Working Group's Skin Deep database. This is a great site that tells you more about ingredients found in personal hygiene and cosmetics products. According to Skin Deep, cocamidopropyl betaine is used in more than two-thousand products as a cleansing agent, foam booster, and an agent for increasing viscosity. I think this is what helps keep your skin from drying out like with other hand sanitizers.

The key ingredient for germ protection in Prefense seems to be the Amosil-Q, a chemical compound patented in 2003 by Dr. William Peterson, President and CEO of Coating Systems Laboratories, and two co-creators. When I did a search for Amosilq (as it appears on the product label), not a lot of results came up. Then I found an FDA advisory warning consumers to be wary of hand sanitizers that claim to protect against MRSA. None of the products listed in the advisory contain Amosil-Q, but I started digging for more information and eventually (it took a couple of hours, at least) I found a product listing on a National Institutes of Health site, and that led me to a Wikipedia article on Benzalkonium chloride.

After all this reading, I feel pretty confident that Prefense protects against all those bugs it lists as well as it claims. I probably wouldn't use it every day, but I think it's great to use on days when you know you're at higher risk of contamination: yard sale days, working a cash register during the holidays, traveling on any kind of public transportation, and yes, cleaning up after a hurricane.

Your Chance to Win

One winner will receive an 8-ounce bottle of Prefense Foaming Hand Sanitizer.

FIRST ENTRY: Leave a comment here on why you think Prefense is perfect for a disaster kit, plus tell us what other item you think should be in everyone's kit.

Please be sure that I have a way to contact you, in case you're the winner. The form asks for your email address, but that's just for logging into Blogger; I can't see it. Be sure that your Blogger profile shows your email or include your email addy with your comment.

EXTRA ENTRIES: For each item you complete, leave another comment here (two comments in the case of tweeting) and be sure to include a link to your comments and tweets.

*leave a relevant comment on any non-giveaway post on this blog (+1)
*like Prefense on Facebook (+1)
*follow Auriette and Prefense on Twitter and tweet about this giveaway (+2)
suggested tweet: Enter for your chance to win a revolutionary new hand sanitizer from @prefense and @auriette: http://bit.ly/i32rHR #giveaway ends May 14.

You can earn a maximum of five entries per household. Eligible comments must be made no later than 11:59pm ET on Saturday, May 14, 2011. Entrants must be 18 or older, with shipping addresses in the United States. One winner will be selected by random drawing no later than Sunday May 15 and notified by email. Winner must respond to the email with mailing address within 72 hours or another winner will be selected.

Disclaimer

The makers of Prefenz Botanicals provided me with a 1.5 ounce bottle of their product so I could try it for myself and write this review. The company is also providing the 8 ounce bottle that will be given away through this post. I received no other compensation or consideration, and the opinions expressed in this post are my own.

WINNER - Hurricane Safety Kit

2011-04-10T21:23:00.000-07:00

The winner of the dynamo-powered flashlight/radio and the multi-tool kit is CarolPie with comment #83. Congratulations! Carol has already responded with her mailing address. Thank you to everyone who visited and commented on the blog.

Some of you mentioned that you don't really have a disaster kit prepared, and I hope you'll all take a little time and money to put together a kit for you and your families.

The Guessing Game is On!

2011-04-06T22:12:00.000-07:00

Dr. Bill Gray is a noted hurricane researcher who regularly issues predictions for tropical cyclone activity. He and his protégé Dr. Philip Klotzbach study global weather patterns and historical hurricane records and then issue warnings about how busy they think hurricane season is going to be. On April 6, they issued their predictions for the 2011 season, and until the season is over, they will continue to study the shifting weather patterns and issue updated reports.

THE MEAT OF IT

For the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, Drs. Gray and Klotzbach anticipate above-average activity, with 16 named storms and five of those, major hurricanes (category 3 and above). They have calculated a 72% probability of a U.S. landfall.

The complete report, which is filled with charts, graphs and colorful maps, is available online.

HISTORICAL HURRICANES

I found it interesting that the researchers compared the 55-year period of 1901-1955 to 1956-2010, and the earlier period had a much higher number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. Of course, the data-gathering tools available in the first half of the 20th century was very different from what's available now.

The report also stated that we can expect busier hurricane seasons for the next ten years or so, but then it should quiet down.

HOW ACCURATE ARE THEY?

For the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Drs. Klotzbach and Gray issued an initial forecast in December 2009, plus three updates based on changing weather conditions. The final column is the actual number for the 2010 season. I've copied the chart below, and you can read the full report, which includes a glossary defining all the terms they use in the chart.

Another great site for historical data is provided by Unisys. Pick a year, and you can look at maps and detailed information about all the tropical activity from tropical depressions to major hurricanes.

Gotta Light?

2011-04-05T23:33:00.000-07:00

My mom called me on Monday evening and said that her power was out. She lit some candles until she went to bed, then she kept a flashlight handy in case she had to get up in the night. Shortly after she woke up on Tuesday, the phone stopped working; she has her phone through her cable provider and it relies on electricity. About 4:30 Tuesday afternoon, Gulf Power crews repaired the problem on her street.

She was without power for more than 24 hours because of a thunderstorm.

LIGHTING OPTIONS

It's always good to have back-up lighting in your home. A simple battery-operated flashlight can be purchased for a few dollars at stores like Wal-mart, Target, Home Depot or Lowe's. A flashlight with 5 or 6 LED bulbs can give you enough light to get around and do simple tasks.

For prolonged outages or if you anticipate having to do things that require two hands (change a diaper, prepare an insulin injection, deal with storm damage) it's nice to have a hands-free lantern. They're a little more expensive and take a larger battery, but they put out more light and don't have to be held and aimed.

Rechargeable flashlights are great, but in a prolonged outage, where will you recharge it? If you have a generator, you can plug in the flashlight and your cell phone at the same time as you're cooling your fridge. During the last few major hurricanes, I was working at a TV station with a huge generator that served the entire building. I think we all brought rechargeable items from home.

Check in the camping section of a department or sporting goods store for a good selection of more expensive lanterns. Some of the camping lanterns burn LP gas and give off very bright light. If you can afford it, you'll be glad to have it when the lights are off for an extended period of time.

BARGAIN HUNTING

You can spend hundreds of dollars on a flashlight or lantern, but it's not necessary. Twenty dollars will get you several small flashlights that will get you through an emergency. If you don't already have some around the house, start watching for sales. Summer is a popular time for camping, and we're also getting close to Father's Day, so you may find some good deals if you keep your eyes open for them. Between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you can sometimes find gift packs of small LED flashlights at the hardware stores; they usually package five or six small flashlights for under $10.

CARE FOR YOUR BATTERIES

When you have battery-operated items stored for long periods, remove the batteries or at least check them regularly. We don't have central air, and we've had batteries burst from the heat. The battery acid can render your device useless and make a mess in the drawer or cupboard where the device is stored.

Check your storehouse of batteries and/or LP gas regularly. Make sure that you have viable materials when you need them. Also be sure that the flashlight or lantern and its batteries are easy to find in a blackout. You don't want to be rummaging through a drawer or box in the dark trying to find the flashlight and load the batteries.

THE DANGERS OF CANDLES

Finally, a few words of warning about open flames:

Keep burning candles or lanterns in a clear area where the flame cannot ignite nearby materials. A dried floral arrangement on the mantle may be pretty, but it's also highly flammable. Curtains can blow in the wind. A candle placed on the floor near the bed could set a wayward sheet or blanket on fire.
Never leave an open flame unattended. Not only does it increase the risk of an accidental fire, but if you have children or pets, they could be attracted to the flame and burn themselves.

Food

2011-03-30T20:15:00.000-07:00

If your area was hit by a disaster today, do you have enough food to survive for three days?

Remember, the power is out. The food in the fridge is starting to get warm. Electric stoves, microwave ovens, and electric can openers are useless. Natural gas is usually a little more reliable (as a source for your gas stove and gas water heater), but let's not count on it. You have no running water.

What'll you eat?

This is why it's important to think ahead and have a few extra supplies on hand, especially if your area is prone to disasters during a certain time of year, like Hurricane Season.

Here's what I have in my cupboard right now:

5 cans of potted meat
5 cans of chunk chicken
1 can of Vienna sausages
1 Clif Bar
half a bag of tortilla chips
half a bag of Baked Lay's
a partial can of Planter's Mixed Nuts that have been in the pantry for a long time. Do nuts go bad?
ditto a half a box of Girl Scout Cookies, which are still sealed in their individual portion bag.

We won't starve, but it would get pretty boring after the first couple of meals. Especially if the mayo and other condiments go bad. As we get closer to Hurricane Season, we'll start increasing the variety of non-perishable foods we have on hand.

A SHOPPING LIST

Ready-to-eat canned fruit or fruit cups. Don't buy the jumbo-sized cans unless you're feeding a very large family or sharing with the whole neighborhood.
Dried fruits - sometimes shelved in the produce section, sometimes in the baking aisle.
Nuts - eat alone or make trail mix with nuts and dried fruit. Avoid pre-made trail mixes that are spicy (make you thirstier) or have candy in them (easily melts without air conditioning).
Compressed food bars or granola bars.
Whole grain cereals such as oatmeal and low-fat granola. Can be eaten dry if you don't have shelf-stable milk.
Canned vegetables - I grew up eating green beans straight out of the can. Whole kernel corn and some kinds of beans are often included in cold salads.
Dried meat products like jerky.
Canned fish and meat.
Peanut butter - read labels and look for one that doesn't require refrigeration after opening.
Whole grain crackers - These are good replacements for bread.
Shelf stable milk that doesn't require refrigeration - I've seen Parmalat on the shelf at Sam's Club, and Bordon's and Hershey are among the companies that also make shelf stable milk products.
Fruit juices in single-serve cans, bottles, boxes, or foil packs.
Electrolyte drinks, such as Smart Water, Gatorade or Powerade.
Snack-packs of pudding or Jel-lo.
MREs and Heater Meals - Meals Ready to Eat are used by the armed forces and are typically distributed by the National Guard after a disaster. They include a just-add-water chemical heater for your main course, so you can get a hot meal in minutes without utilities. MREs and the civilian version, referred to as Heater Meals, are available through camping supply stores and internet retailers.
WARNING: Each MRE pack contains enough calories and protein to keep a muscular and physically fit serviceman or woman going for hours as they burn thousands of calories lugging heavy packs and weapons for miles in a war situation. A normal person can make three meals out of one box. Seriously.

DON'T FORGET YOUR PETS

I should mention that we have about 15 cans of regular cat food and about a dozen cans of Indy's diabetic cat food, plus a partial bag of their dry food. It's important to plan ahead for your pets, too.

AVOID THE "PANIC SHOP"

You don't have to break the bank and buy $500 worth of food when a disaster is imminent. Make out a three-day menu based on the size of your family and buy a few items every week. Be aware of the expiration dates (canned goods will often last for over a year), and once you're stocked up, just rotate the older items out as part of your regular meals and replace them with new products. This way, you can take advantage of sales and coupons, you're spreading out your cost over time, and you're avoiding the "panic shop." That's when you're maneuvering your cart through crowded aisles, searching increasingly bare shelves and buying everything you can lay your hands on without thought of how it will fit your family's needs.

GIVEAWAY: Stock Your Emergency Kit

2011-03-29T08:25:00.000-07:00

A couple of years ago, I won an Ice-Qube emergency kit in a blog giveaway. It's a little box that contains all sorts of useful stuff, from a rain poncho to a water bag to rubber gloves.

I've never needed to use anything out of it, thank goodness, and I decided to look through it today and see if I could find some things that I don't need, because I already have them outside the kit. I picked out a couple of items, and I'm going to give them away to someone who can use them.

This handy device will help you stay informed and brighten your way when the power is out.

It's a Flashlight with 5 superbright LED bulbs. You can turn it on full or you can choose a lower light option, which is great if you're looking for something at night and everyone else is sleeping and you're trying not to disturb them. It also conserves battery power.

But that's not all!

It's also an AM/FM Radio, so you can tune in to local emergency coverage and weather updates. After a disaster, you need a way to get information. You'll need to know about curfews; debris pick-up; where and when you can get ice, water and food; the status of utility services; who to call if you need help; and so much more. You'll be able to get that from local radio stations.

But wait, there's more!

It has an Emergency Siren to help rescue workers or neighbors find you if you're trapped. Of course, you have to have the device with you at the time that you get trapped. It's fairly small and will fit in the pocket of a raincoat or housecoat. It also comes with a wrist strap, in case your hands are full.

The best part is, it doesn't need batteries! Everything is powered by a Dynamo Charger. Wind it for just one minute, and you'll get a half-hour of flashlight time (according to the package), and probably 5-10 minutes of radio time. Will your arm get tired? Probably, but it's better than sitting around in the dark because your batteries are dead.

The other part of this giveaway is a Multitool. It has a knife blade, can opener, bottle opener, Phillips-head screwdriver, flat-head screwdriver, ruler/file/saw, pliers/wirecutter, and a couple of other things that I'm not sure what they are. I think it has at least 13 functions, and it comes with a case that has a belt loop on the back.

This is great to have in a disaster kit. Here are some examples of how you could use this multitool:

open your canned goods at mealtime;
cut rope when you're tying down tarps;
open screw-down battery covers on radio or lantern.

I have a really good battery-operated radio, rechargeable batteries, and a gas generator, so I don't really need another radio, although the siren and the fact that it charges by dynamo did make me think twice before offering it up. My husband has a ton of tools, including a multitool or two, and I have a Swiss Army Knife, so we're covered in that respect. I should mention that I received no compensation or incentive to host this giveaway.

Now's your chance to win both of these really useful items.

FIRST ENTRY: Leave a comment here explaining why you would like to add these items to your disaster kit.

Please be sure that I have a way to contact you, in case you're the winner. The form asks for your email address, but that's just for logging into Blogger; I can't see it. Be sure that your Blogger profile shows your email or include your email addy with your comment.

EXTRA ENTRIES: For each item you complete, leave another comment here and be sure to include a link to your comments and tweets.

*follow this blog on Google Friend Connect (+1)
*leave a relevant comment on any non-giveaway post on this blog (+1)
*follow Auriette on Twitter and tweet about this giveaway (+1)

You can earn a maximum of four entries per household. Eligible comments must be made no later than 11:59pm ET on Friday, April 8, 2011. Entrants must be 18 or older, with shipping addresses in the United States or military APO/FPO addresses. One winner will be selected by random drawing no later than Sunday April 10 and notified by email. Winner must respond to the email with mailing address within 72 hours or another winner will be selected.

Keeping Things Clean

2011-03-24T22:13:00.000-07:00

Keep an eye on this blog for a chance to win a new sanitizing product. The makers of Prefense say their foaming hand sanitizer won't dry out your hands like alcohol-based sanitizer products can. It also helps shield you against germs longer than most other hand sanitizers.

The company is sending me a small bottle of Prefense to try, and I'll post my review here. They're also giving one of my readers the chance to win a large bottle of Prefense. I'm really excited to offer you the chance, because this sounds like a wonderful product to have in a disaster kit.

Disasters can be very messy. Think about it -- hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, fires, they can leave behind a lot of damage that you have to clean up. They can also knock out the water supply and electric power that can be instrumental in keeping clean and germ-free.

One of the company founders, David Reusswig described Prefense as "an invisible glove" because it lasts for hours, reducing your risk of getting sick or developing an infection as well as eliminating the need for constant reapplication.

Can you tell I'm excited to try it out? Keep watching for my review and the chance to win your own bottle of Prefense!

Water

2011-03-20T18:11:00.000-07:00

We're just a few weeks away from the start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Week by week, I'll be covering one or two of the supplies coastal residents should have on hand, just in case. If you follow along, by the time the season begins, you'll be mostly prepared. If a storm does head your way, you'll be ahead of the game and can easily handle all the last-minute details.

Our first topic is WATER, for drinking, washing and flushing.

I've been through a number of hurricanes, and only once was there any serious widespread issue with plumbing. Let's consider some of the reasons why your tap water may be unsafe or unavailable for use.

During a hurricane, trees may be uprooted; the high winds may even spin the tree around in the ground. If tree roots run anywhere near the water line, the line could be breached.
Flooding and overloaded drainage systems could cause problems.
Electrical power outages may affect sewage lift stations and water pumping and purification operations.

If you have any doubt about the safety of the water coming out of your tap during or after a storm, do not drink it!

SAFE DRINKING WATER

The federal government and many other emergency response agencies recommend keeping bottled water on hand for an emergency. The rule is one gallon per person per day, and you should be prepared to live for three days without any assistance.

3 Gallons Per Person/Pet Per Day

So, you need 3 gallons of water per person in your household. Add 3 gallons per pet as well. You may need more if anyone in your household has a medical condition that requires they drink more than average, if you have a really big dog or a horse, or if you have non-perishable food that calls for adding water.

Depending on where you shop, you can get drinking water (purified, distilled, drinking water, spring water) for 75 cents to a dollar per gallon. There are 128 ounces in a gallon, so here's how it breaks down (roughly) for a few common sizes of bottled water.

20-ounce bottles = 7 per person/pet per day
16-ounce bottles = 8 per person/pet per day
8-ounce bottles = 16 per person/pet per day
1 Liter bottles = 4 per person/pet per day
half-liter = 8 per person/pet per day

If money is a concern for you, remember:

You don't have to buy all that bottled water as long as you have clean, sealed, human-consumption containers to store the water.

Maybe you have something that you use for camping or sporting events. That big Gatorade-orange cooler/dispenser can be thoroughly cleaned and filled with water from your tap before the storm hits.

If you buy juice or tea by the gallon, wash the containers and fill them with water. You might need to let them sit with baking soda in them for a while to get out residual scents from the original drink.

Do you have plastic water bottles that you use when you're out walking or that you take with you to work/school? Use them, too.

Be creative. Just make sure that all those small containers add up to:

3 Gallons Per Person/Pet Per Day

WASHING AND FLUSHING

You'll want to wash up in the days after the storm. You'll be out picking up limbs and trash in your yard. You may be repairing damage. It's summer, so it's usually really hot. You'll sweat. You will want to be able to wash your hands and bathe a little.

This is why we fill our bathtubs with water before a hurricane.

I don't remember who it was, but I still laugh at the person who, in an article or a blog or something, was ridiculing the practice. She wanted to know what good it would do to fill a bathtub with water.

This is the water that you'll use to wash hands or take a sponge bath, rinse dishes (if you're not using disposable), and flush the toilet if pressure is low (more on that later). Keep the bathroom door closed to keep pets and small children out of the water.

You could use the water for drinking or cooking, in a pinch. Be sure to purify by boiling or adding bleach - add 1/8 teaspoon (8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach per gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. I wouldn't recommend tub water for drinking, but it's better than nothing.

After Hurricane Ivan, when the waterfront sewage treatment facility was flooded and damaged, and with many damaged or flooded drain lines throughout the county, water pressure was practically non-existent. In addition, county officials requested that no one flush their toilets to back up the already overloaded system. Once they okayed flushing again, the pressure was still really low. You'll need extra water for flushing the toilet.

It takes about a gallon of water to flush. Don't open your tank and pour it in, though. One gallon won't do it that way. Slowly pour the water directly into the bowl. When it reaches a certain level in the bowl, the toilet automatically flushes. Cool, huh?

SOURCES OF WATER

Three or four days after the storm, the National Guard, various relief organizations, and some businesses will provide free ice and bottled water. You usually have to go pick it up. There will be a line. At some point, the supply will run out. It is, however, a source of ice and water. Stay tuned to local information sources (primarily radio) for times and locations.

Unless you have a tankless water heater, you have a source of water. The tanks usually have a faucet on the outside, so it can be drained for cleaning or replacement. Be sure to turn your water heater off before draining! You don't want it trying to heat an empty tank, and you don't want it to fill with contaminated water, especially if you're using it a gallon or two at a time. As long as the tank filled before the storm, it's clean and safe.

THE BOTTOM LINE

If you have a family of four and two average-sized pets, you need 18 gallons of drinking water on hand if a storm strikes. This can be water you collect in containers you already have or bottles that you buy. You should be able to purchase this quantity for $18 or less.

You will also need water for washing your hands, bathing, rinsing dishes, and flushing the toilet. Fill your bathtub or collect tap water in containers.

Store purchased water in a dark place, such as under the sink, pantry, closet or linen cabinet. If you use bottled water regularly, rotate older bottles out and new bottles in throughout the season. Wait to fill your own containers until a storm is brewing.

Buy an Emergency Kit and Help People in Japan

2011-03-17T21:08:00.000-07:00

Now's a great time to prepare for a disaster.

Why now?

If not now, when? Don't put it off until a catastrophe is imminent.

Here's a little extra incentive:

Ready Set Go Kits is an online store specializing in ready-made emergency preparedness kits. They have kits for several different types of disasters - hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, etc. - plus special kits for children, pets, and workplaces.

I compared the earthquake kit for 1 person and the hurricane kit for 1 person. They contain exactly the same things. I'm not surprised. The basics of an emergency kit are pretty much the same, whether you're facing a natural disaster or a man-made event. I suppose some people wouldn't buy a generic "disaster survival kit" where they might buy one that's supposedly specific to the kind of disaster most likely to hit their area.

The dog and cat kits are also pretty similar. The dogs get a bonus of 2 chew sticks. I assume that the included food would be specific to a dog or a cat and not just "pet food."

You can buy all these things separately, and it may even be a better deal to do so, depending on what's included (are they plastic bandage strips or flexible fabric, for example). What's great about these kits is they save you time. Click on the buy button, and when the package arrives, you just put it in your hall closet or wherever you'll remember to look for it, and you're done for at least a year. Some of the items, like the boxes of water, have a 5-year shelf life, but eventually you will have to replace the food, water and batteries.

You may be wondering how all this can help people in Japan or maybe you think I'm going to suggest buying a kit and having it sent to the tsunami zone. Not at all. Just buy yourself an emergency kit in March 2011, and 10% of the purchase price will be donated to the Red Cross for disaster relief in Japan. Simple, huh?

If you don't have an emergency kit, do yourself and the tsunami victims a favor and order from Ready Set Go today.

In case you're wondering, I receive no compensation for this post. I read about the kids and the donation to Japanese disaster relief, and I thought it was appropriate for this blog.

Disaster preparedness must be a priority!

2011-03-13T20:16:00.001-07:00

Have you seen the photos and video from Japan? Have you heard about the millions of dollars in damages in Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast?

What would you do if you had 30 seconds warning that disaster was about to strike?

Let's look at the disasters that have unfolded over the past few days:

Earthquakes: more than one, plus violent aftershocks
Tsunami: Affecting at least two continents
Nuclear Plant Explosions: Radiation dangers plus the threat of a meltdown
Freezing Temperatures: Japan is experiencing winter weather while millions are without power
Fire: Damaged infrastructures are causing fires and explosions

Any one of these situations is bad enough on its own. Together, they are catastrophic.

I haven't thought much about tsunamis where I live, but take a look at the map. I live inside the area marked in orange. As you can see, we're surrounded on three sides by large bodies of water. I never realized how close our home is to the bays and bayous.

A visit to the U.S. Geological Survey website shows me that a 5.8 quake occurred in the Gulf of Mexico in September 2006. It was centered several hundred miles south southeast of my home. This past weekend, a small quake took place in Alabama, about 300 miles north of where I live.

All those little spots on the map at right are the epicenters of earthquakes over the past week. You can see the cluster of events in California and Alaska. Wow. Visit the USGS site for updated information on recent seismic activity and for historic reports on your state. Every state has had at least one quake reported. It may have been a hundred years since the last one, but the history is there.

The world seems so uncertain right now. We have economic problems, civil unrest, religious strife, and so many disasters, both natural and man-made.

Take the time to prepare for the worst. If you never need to use your emergency supplies or the map of your evacuation route, great. Terrific. But which would be worst: preparing a disaster plan and emergency kit and never needing it or finding yourself in the midst of a calamity with no supplies, no plan, and no idea where you can get help?

I'd rather be prepared than unprepared. Wouldn't you?

Category 5 Yasi

2011-02-08T21:12:00.000-08:00

The ratings scale that classifies tropical cyclones goes from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most destructive. It was a category 5 storm, with wind gusting up to 180 miles per hour, that slammed into Australia on February 3, 2011. Yasi was the largest and most powerful cyclone to hit that nation in at least a hundred years.

Once over land, the storm began to weaken, but after traveling around 250 miles inland, Yasi was still a category 3. After another 250 miles, the storm finally began to fade. Yet for all its destruction, at this point Yasi is blamed for only one death. It's one of those really tragic, preventable deaths. A 23-year-old man died of carbon monoxide poisoning while running a generator in a closed room. Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts gave credit for the low death toll to Australians who prepared early and evacuated coastal areas and flood zones.

It's worth comparing this Australian storm to Hurricane Katrina, which devastated coastal Mississippi and Louisiana in 2005. The storms were very similar in size and strength, but Katrina is blamed for the deaths of more than 1,800 people.


YASI - 2011	KATRINA - 2005
Sustained Winds 155mph	Sustained Winds 175mph
Low Pressure 929mbars	Low Pressure 902mbars
Size: 372 miles across	Size: 397 miles across

The impact of a hurricane or cyclone depends on many factors beyond the size of the storm and its wind speed. How fast the storm crosses the area, whether it makes landfall at high tide or low tide, the geography of the region will all affect how much damage is done.

When you find yourself in the path of the storm, you need to be prepared for the worst. In Australia, residents were warned that response would take at least 24 hours. U.S. and state emergency management officials encourage everyone to be able to take care of themselves for the first 72 hours. That means:

non-perishable food for three days (9 meals plus snacks)
water for three days (1 gallon per person per day)
first aid kit with bandages, antiseptic treatments, painkillers and any needed prescription drugs
battery powered, solar-powered or dynamo-powered radio for news and information
battery powered, solar-powered or dynamo-powered flashlights
food and water for pets
supplies to care for infants, children and the elderly as needed

Thousands of people in Australia are still without power. Homes and livelihoods are destroyed. This is all happening in a regional already devastated by deadly flooding this season.

Disaster can strike anywhere, at any time. Think about your family's disaster plan now and prepare for the future.

WYBGEB5M3AJ3

Weather and Fire Safety

2010-12-31T08:57:00.000-08:00

Weather conditions are a big factor in the risk of wildfire.

A good, steady rain soaks into the ground and vegetation. Grass and trees in the ground have plenty to drink, so the stems and trunks are full of water. A stray cigarette butt or lightning strike is less likely to spark a fire. When it's very dry, grass and trees dry out, too. They get brittle, and any stray bit of ash can ignite a fire that will spread quickly through wooded areas.

A lot of wind is also bad news. Have you ever blown on a burning cinder and watched it glow brighter or even flare up? If a breeze hits ash from a campfire or a hot spot from lightning just right, it can keep it burning and ignite dry materials nearby. Wind also spreads fire. It pushes the flames across fields. It picks up burning ash and debris and carries it to new areas. That's one way that fire can cross a road or ditch that would normally act as a barrier.

The National Weather Service has a page on Fire Weather Conditions. Your state's Forestry Service or Fire Marshall's office website may also have information on fire dangers. Before you set off fireworks, burn trash and debris, or start a campfire, check the conditions and make sure it's safe. Check with your local fire department about burn permits. When you are putting out a fire on the ground, stir up the ashes; even if you douse the area with water, hot spots can remain deep inside the ash for days. Those hot spots can reignite and if the fire grows and spreads, it could put homes, human lives, wildlife and firefighters at risk.

Off-Season Safety - Surviving the Holidays

2010-12-03T21:24:00.000-08:00

I turned on the radio last night to listen to the news, and I heard a horrible story. A mother and adult son died in their home because of a fire that is still under investigation, but friends say that space heaters used in the home were probably to blame. The family dog probably perished as well.
Right after that story, they reported on another house fire where thankfully, no one was hurt, but the home sustained major fire, smoke and water damage. That one was caused by ash or debris flying out of the fireplace, alighting combustible material nearby.

When I started looking for the details on those two fires, I found a report of another blaze (left) that destroyed a home this morning. The cause is under investigation, but the fire chief believes space heaters are to blame. No one was physically hurt, but the residents are homeless now.
That article contained information on another situation where the house didn't burn, but smoke was backing up in the home because the fireplace flue wasn't opened correctly -- a fire waiting to happen, and certainly if the people who lived there had been asleep with no working alarm, they could have perished from the smoke.

All this reminds of a story from a few years ago, when a woman and her daughter died in a fire. They were on disability, as I recall, and they didn't have electricity in their home. We were in a really cold snap, as we are this week, and they were trying to stay warm by burning a fire in a metal drum.

This is always the most dangerous time of year for house fires in Northwest Florida. We're experiencing the first sustained cold temperatures of the year, and in addition to trying to stay warm, people are distracted with the holidays, they're cooking more, they're adding Christmas trees and holiday lights into the mix, and the risk shoots up.

Here are my safety tips, which I have learned from years in the news business.

The space in "space heater" is the space you need to leave around it. Many fires begin when a heater gets tipped over (newer ones will automatically shut off when knocked over). Other fires start because a blanket or clothes or anything flammable ends up on top of the heater. Make sure your space heater is in a clear area, and check it frequently to make sure a child, pet or the wind doesn't create a fire hazard by putting something flammable near or on the heater.

If you must burn a fire: be sure that your chimney is clean, the flue is functioning correctly and it's open, you have clear space in front of the fireplace, and you have a good fireplace screen to catch ash that might flight out.

Please, never burn a fire indoors in anything other than a fireplace or properly installed wood-burning stove. Properly installed means it has venting to take the smoke outside. A smoky room can kill you, too, plus if it's not venting out, that means the risk of hot ash is higher in the house as well.

Have your heating system serviced and cleaned annually. Carbon monoxide is the silent killer. Whole families die in their sleep from dirty heating systems or leaks.

Read the labels on electronics, appliances and holiday lights. Make sure you're not overloading your outlets. Use surge protectors. Make sure cords are out of the way. Check once in a while to make sure the cords, outlets, and power strips aren't hot to the touch.

Major open flame fire hazard: blowing curtains. When you're lighting candles or building a fire, take a moment to step back and survey the surroundings with an eye to safety. Is there anything flammable nearby? Are there papers, lightweight materials or toys that could get blown or knocked into the flames? Never, ever leave the house with a fire burning or candles lit.

Here are some more links to fire safety tips:

Underwriters Laboratories: Top 10 Tips for Safer Holidays
Underwriters Laboratories: Christmas Tree Fire Video - It only takes a minute
National Fire Protection Association: Put a Freeze on Winter Fires
U.S. Fire Administration: Holiday Fire Safety

My tips are mostly on preventing fires. If the worst happens, are you prepared?
Do you have:

working smoke detectors?
a family escape plan?
copies of important documents, such as identification and insurance records, off site?

Thinking about what you would do -- how you would get out, how you'd make sure your family members are all safe and accounted for -- will ease your mind in the event of an emergency.

It's easier said than done sometimes, but most possessions can be replaced. Sure, if your house
burns, you may lose precious mementos, but as hard as they are to lose, they are just things. The truly important thing is that your family members get out alive.

Underwriters Laboratories is running a promotion with several bloggers right now. I am not one of those bloggers. I receive no compensation from anyone for any part of this post. I only mention it because I did learn about UL's online fire safety tips through one of these blogs, and I don't want there to be any confusion.

Stay safe.

Almost over for another year

2010-11-17T20:14:00.000-08:00

The 2010 hurricane is almost over, at least as far as the official dates go. Every now and then we'll see a December storm or even one in January.

They're usually Atlantic storms that don't come close to land.

This year's season wasn't quite a record-breaker. From Alex in June to Tomas, which kicked up in October and fizzled out ten days ago, we saw a total of 19 named storms. Twelve of those storms were hurricanes, and five reached major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher).

2010 is (tied with 1995 and 1887) the third busiest hurricane season in the past 160 years. The busiest, well I don't need to look that one up. It was 2005, the year that Dennis and Katrina hit my area. That season brought 27 named storms - and four of them blew up between November 18 and January 6, 2006. What was I just saying about post-season storms?

I read one article that stated that none of the storms this season hit the United States. While technically true -- none of the storms made landfall on a U.S. coastline -- the storms did impact the United States. Hermine made landfall in Mexico but quickly moved into Texas. Several storms passed close by and/or dissipated right off the Gulf Coast or Eastern Seaboard. Storms in the Gulf put the BP oil spill clean-up on hold a couple of times.

I'm not saying that we weren't lucky. We were very lucky. It seems impossible that in a year with 19 named storms, the U.S. didn't get hit. Not that I'm complaining!

If you'd like to review the 2010 season and learn more about the storms and statistics of 2010, visit Wikipedia. For historical data on storms going back over a hundred years, check out Unisys Weather.

Now, time to start moving those canned goods out of the emergency kit and using them for winter meals.

Be Aware and Prepared

2010-09-17T20:15:00.000-07:00

If you live in a coastal community, it's your responsibility to know what's happening in the tropics between June 1 and November 30, the official dates of hurricane season. Of course, hurricanes don't have calendars and can occur at any time of year, but the worst ones typically happen during these months.

The reason I bring this up is that while the American media tends to overhype everything, other interests in the Atlantic and Gulf regions may not.

Consider this:
On September 12, after looking at the National Hurricane Center's track (right) and the computer models for Hurricane Igor, I visited the website for The Royal Gazette, the newspaper for Bermuda. I found no mention of Igor, though the paper does maintain an online "Hurricane Awareness" section.

I tweeted my surprise:
It always amazes me that Bermuda's Royal Gazette doesn't carry advance information on hurricanes that will pass close to or hit the island.
7:33 PM Sep 12th via web

I received this response:
@Auriette We do, but unless it is going to be a direct threat, it does not much of a story
8:15 AM Sep 13th via Seesmic Web

Two or three days later, I didn't note the date, one article about Igor did appear in the online edition. The tone was, to my mind, very non-committal, like the Weather Service and/or the reporter were reluctant to get anyone overly excited, in case the storm didn't affect the island.

Saturday, the front page is full of reports about Igor. The storm's outer bands have already reached Bermuda, with the eye expected to pass very close to the island on Sunday evening. In the satellite image (left) Bermuda is in the yellow box at the top.

The Royal Gazette's handling of the Igor story is the opposite of how U.S. mainstream media operates. The Weather Channel, cable news, and local news outlets focus so much attention on a potential disaster, that viewers get sick of hearing about it or begin disbelieving the "hype."

I don't know if it's because I worked in the news business for seven years or because I've been through a major hurricane or both, but hype or not, I'd rather have as much advance notice as possible. What about you?

Earl is on the Way

2010-08-30T19:57:00.000-07:00

If you live in North Carolina or Virginia, there's a good chance you're going to feel the force of Earl later this week. Earl is presently a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and higher gusts. The storm is over 400 miles wide!

Even if the eye of the storm stays off shore, hurricane force winds (sustained winds of 70mph or higher) extend outward from the eye up to 70 miles. Tropical storm force winds (39mph or higher) extend up to 200 miles from the eye.

The current track, always subject to change by a few degrees, brings the eye fairly close to the North Carolina coast. East coast residents should expect wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding. Be prepared for power outages. Pick up potential flying objects from your yard. Keep a close eye on the forecast tracks in case anything changes.

Be safe.

Earl Moves West, Where Next?

2010-08-29T22:40:00.000-07:00

Earl is a little more south and west today than the National Hurricane Center was predicting on Thursday. That the track is as accurate as it is, is a testament to the knowledge that forecasters have about how storms move and to the computer tools that crunch the data. They're doing a marvelous job.

However, weather forecasting is a system of educated guesses. The fact that the track was a little off is to be expected. That's why they have that big cone of uncertainty around the track. One little wobble, one slight deviation can send the storm hundreds of miles in a different direction.

If you live in the Caribbean Islands you should be ready to feel the storm's effects, and as Earl makes up his mind which way he's going next, I encourage anyone living on the Eastern Seaboard, particularly in the Carolinas or Virginia, to make preliminary preparations for Earl's passing.

Hopefully, you already did some prep work for Danielle and breathed a big sigh of relief when she stayed well east of U.S. shores. Think about the two or three days notice you might get if Earl ends up coming your way. What will you need to do during that time? What can you do now to save yourself time if the hurricane comes your way?

Many of my earlier posts on this blog offer suggestions for things to think about ahead of a natural disaster. You can also visit the links on my sidebar for checklists and tips for preparation.

Here are some ideas:

Before the storm:
Prepare your property for high winds and heavy rains.
Know if you need to evacuate or sandbag your home.
Be ready to prepare meals without electricity or running water.
Care for your family's health, and that includes the family pets.

After the storm:
Make temporary repairs.
File insurance claims.
Notify friends, family and co-workers of your situation.
Will you have to report for work? Or will you be living without a paycheck?

Please don't wait until the last minute to think things through.
You'll need to remain calm and take quick action if the storm turns your way.
Advance planning is the key.

Double Whammy in the Atlantic

2010-08-25T19:41:00.000-07:00

If I lived on the island of Bermuda or in a coastal community on the Eastern Seaboard, I would buy some extra water and canned goods, make sure I had fresh batteries for the radio and flashlights, and keep a close eye on Hurricane Danielle.

Danielle is currently a category 2 hurricane and is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center shows Danielle continuing to travel north in the Atlantic, with the eye passing to the east of Bermuda, but several computer models show the storm making a sharp turn to the west, which could take it into one of the mid-Atlantic states. And even if the storm's eye misses Bermuda, the island is still likely to get some high winds, heavy surf and flooding.

The effects of a hurricane can reach hundreds of miles from the eye. When Hurricanes Gustav and Ike crossed the Gulf in 2008, they were hundreds of miles from Northwest Florida's Gulf Coast, but low-lying areas and waterfront properties still experienced storm surge-related flooding.

What's the harm of stocking up on a few supplies now? You can still drink the water and eat the food, even if the storm doesn't hit and you don't lose power. You'll still use the batteries in your cameras, toys, or remote controls. If the storm does come your way, you'll be glad you hit the grocery store before the frenzy started, plus you'll gain time to do all the other prep needed before a hurricane strike.

While you're keeping an eye on Danielle, watch Tropical Storm Earl as well. The computer models are showing Earl following a similar track to Danielle, although none of them are showing Earl turning to the west. At least not yet.

I won't rest easy until it actually makes the northerly turn that everyone's predicting. Right now, it's aimed squarely towards the Gulf.

Tropical Depression 6 could get a name soon.

2010-08-21T19:30:00.000-07:00

The last tropical low that was expected to get a name, never did gain that much strength. Good for us. Tropical depression 6, now swirling in the Atlantic, is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm in the next few hours and could be a hurricane by Monday. It's headed toward the general area of Bermuda, and no matter which way it goes, the island nation should be prepared for higher than normal tides and lots of strong waves.

TS Danielle

2010-08-10T20:50:00.000-07:00

Tropical Depression 5 has formed in the Gulf and is expected to become Tropical Storm Danielle by morning. The storm is forecast to cross over the Deepwater Horizon oil leak area and make landfall in Louisiana on Thursday. Don't know what this will mean for the capping and clean-up efforts. Folks on the coast can expect heavy waves and strong tides, possible flooding. Be safe, everyone.

Should You Evacuate?

2010-08-02T19:48:00.000-07:00

I'll not soon forget the night I was working as a TV news producer, cranking out the 10pm newscast with a hurricane bearing down on the Gulf Coast. I answered the news hotline and a frantic woman was on the other end. She wanted someone to tell her what to do, where to go.

As a news producer, I gave people the facts, information that they could use to make a decision for themselves. It wasn't my place to tell this woman whether to stay or go or whether she should head north, east or west, just as I cannot write here what you should do in the event a hurricane is coming your way. I can tell you what to consider when you're making up your mind what to do.

Where are you?

If you're a few miles inland, not in a flood zone, in a well-built house, you can probably ride out the storm at home. You'll want to have at least three days worth of food and water for the humans and animals that share your life. Flashlights, a radio, and extra batteries. Fill up your car and get an extra can of gas in case it's a few days before you can fill up again. Extra gas if you have a generator. Refill your prescriptions if you need to, stock your first aid kit, and it's not a bad idea to have a couple of tarps and a rope on hand in case you have some damage. Board up your windows and pick up anything in your yard that could become a missile in 150mph winds. Be prepared, and you'll probably be just as safe as you would in the closest school.

Sometimes you have to go

If you live within a mile or two of the coast, you may be at risk of storm surge aka inland flooding. The best way I can describe storm surge is to tell you that it's the highest high tide you will ever experience. It is a wall of water, with waves on top, and it can literally sweep a house off its foundation.

The residents of Grande Lagoon subdivision in Pensacola, Florida, learned that from Hurricane Ivan. About 30 residents stayed in their waterfront homes during the storm, and several died.

Even if you don't live right on the coast, if you live in a flood zone, chances are you'll be dealing with high water. Rivers crest and drainage systems are quickly overtaxed, especially when branches and other debris start blowing around. [Photo: Flooding after Hurricane Floyd]

Rising flood waters not only put you at risk of drowning, it's an unsanitary situation that could lead to infection or disease.

Medical Concerns

Is anyone in your household dependent on electricity? If someone relies on an oxygen machine or other medical equipment, keep in mind that it's very rare not to lose power in a tropical storm. It's not impossible that your power will stay on, but I wouldn't count on it.

If it's really difficult for you to evacuate, call your power company NOW and talk to someone about their priorities in a massive outage. They may be able to put you on a "medically necessary" list, ensuring that your neighborhood is one of the first to be restored. Bear this in mind: power crews can't just rush in. Downed trees have to be cleared. New poles may have to be erected.

Keep in mind, too, that if something happens during the storm, an ambulance cannot get to you. Even after the storm passes, you may not be able to drive your own vehicle out. Can you survive in isolation for hours or days? Are you in physical condition to clear your own road if necessary?

These are the things you should think about now, not when the storm is a few hours away from landfall.

Where should you go?

For information on free public shelters in your area, call your county emergency management or public information office or contact the American Red Cross. Special needs shelters may be equipped to provide electricity when medically necessary, but that's the only thing that's provided. You need to bring with you: food; water; flashlights and radio; batteries; bedding; small toys, games or books; hand sanitizer or wipes; probably even toilet paper.

Websites such as BeReady.gov provide checklists that you can print to make sure you have the essentials. Develop your own list, too: medications and personal comfort items, important documents (insurance, identification, deeds, etc.), and pet supplies.

What about Fluffy?

Bear in mind that most shelters don't accept pets, only trained helper animals. If you don't feel safe in your house, please don't leave your pets there, either locked up or running loose. Arrange to board them with your vet. Ask local emergency officials if there is a pet-friendly shelter in your area and encourage them to support one. If you're traveling out of the area, call ahead to find out which hotels and motels will accept pets. Be sure to explain that you're evacuating; some hotels will make exceptions during emergencies.

The Bottom Line

Only you can decide whether it's safe for you to stay in your home. You know the condition of your house, how well built it is, and whether the neighborhood is prone to flooding. You know the special needs of your family members and your own physical condition. Your decision may also be based on the strength of the approaching storm. As sturdy as our concrete block house is, my husband stayed here through Hurricane Ivan and he doesn't want to do it again!

Consider the factors carefully now and come up with a plan and a check list. You don't want to get 200 miles down the road, in the heavy traffic of an evacuation, and remember you left your medication at home or you forgot to turn off the gas. Your plan should cover every step of preparation:

Secure your home
Cover windows, pick up loose objects and lawn furniture
Unplug electronics that could be susceptible to power surges
If you're at risk of flooding, move items to upper shelves or the 2nd floor

Pack
Food, medicine and supplies
Important documents and photos of your home and belongings
Irreplaceable photographs, computer back-up drive

Don't Forget
Small games or toys to keep children occupied
Pets and supplies
Emergency phone contact list (don't rely on mobiles, in case battery dies)

If you wait until the storm is approaching or some other disaster strikes, you will forget something important. Prepare now, so that the thinking is done when you are calm and have plenty of time. When the storm is imminent, you'll be able to act quickly and efficiently, secure in the knowledge that you are doing what's best for your family.

TS Bonnie heads straight for the oil slick.

2010-07-22T20:46:00.000-07:00

I guess we'll get to see if the National Hurricane Center is right about oil and hurricanes not mixing. Supposedly, the oil on the water will help keep the storm from absorbing water and the storm's activity may help disperse the oil faster. We'll see.

Soon.

The NHC's track, as of July 22 at 11pm ET, shows Tropical Storm Bonnie striking Louisiana on Sunday evening. Forecasters say the storm's movement is being guided by a low pressure system on one side and a ridge on the other. Changes in those weather systems could change the storm's track. I'll be monitoring Bonnie until it makes landfall, as should anyone in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Speaking of the Sunshine State, South Florida and the Keys can expect to feel Bonnie's effects on Friday. Forecasters expect the storm to pass directly over that area as it moves from the Atlantic into the Gulf.

The NHC is not predicting that Bonnie will reach hurricane strength before making final landfall, and that is a good thing.

Still, any bad storm can knock out power, even if it's just for a few hours. If it passes through my area, I will unplug my electronics (a power surge just blasted our desktop computer and it was plugged into a battery back-up surge protector, and the computer was off at the time). I have bottled water to last three days and several cans of tuna and chicken, so if the worst happens, we won't starve. We have working flashlights and batteries for the portable radio.

If you live in a coastal area, you could be hit by a tropical storm or hurricane. Hope for the best, but please be prepared for the worst.

A Busy Hurricane Season Begins

2010-06-22T20:43:00.001-07:00

The National Hurricane Center, Accuweather, and tropical weather expert Dr. Bill Gray are predicting a busy hurricane season. That means lots of named storms. The busiest year in recent history was in 2005, when we had 27 named storms, so many that the NHC ran out of names and started using Greek letters for the final few.

Adding to the concern this year is the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil is already affecting beaches in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. If the oil is not there yet, the beaches are still emptier than usual and beach businesses are suffering. Fishermen are stuck in port.

The NHC doesn't think that a hurricane will hurt anything and says it might even help the matter. A storm would theoretically break up and disperse the oil, and the slick over the water could keep the storm from sucking up Gulf water for strength. I am skeptical. I fear that a storm would damage the limited containment system now in place, that it will push the oil onto the beaches sooner, and that it will spread the toxic oil farther inland. If you have to wear a hazmat suit to clean it up, how are we going to get it out of our yards and off our houses?

Even if the NHC is right and a hurricane does help clean up the water and it doesn't cause an even bigger mess, a named storm is not going to help improve tourism or the economy of beach communities.

Outside the Gulf, the Pacific has already seen three named storms and Tropical Depression #5 is in the works. Guatemala is still recovering from Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed over 150 people, buried hundreds of homes under mud, and opened a massive sinkhole that swallowed a three-story building.

If you are not prepared for a hurricane, now is the time to start making a checklist for evacuation and stocking up on non-perishable supplies. Trim trees. Look for loose shingles. Repair what you can now, before it gets ripped off in hurricane-force winds and causes more damage. Don't wait until the storm is three days away and try to do it all.

Time flies towards hurricane season.

2010-03-18T20:10:00.001-07:00

Can you believe it's March already? Seems like just yesterday we were celebrating the New Year, and now it's almost spring. I'm certain ready for some warmer weather this year!

We've seen quite a few disasters around the world in 2010. Earthquakes, massive winter storms, flooding. Each incident is a reminder that we must always be prepared for the worst. Better to be prepared and not need your supplies than to be caught without the essentials.

Tim and I have been using our canned goods throughout the winter. Soon it will be time to restock for the season. We try to keep canned tuna and chicken, which on its own might get boring after a few days, but at least we won't starve. We always keep a supply of bottled water. In the winter, we recycled all the old empty bottles. When hurricane season comes, we'll start saving the empties again. If a storm heads this way, we can fill them from the tap for washing and flushing the toilet.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 was the first time I remember losing water pressure and not having running water after a storm. It's because a lot of infrastructure damage and the wastewater treatment plant downtown flooded. By summer, I think the new wastewater treatment plant will be operational. It's located inland a few miles, so hopefully that won't be a problem we'll face again, but better to fill up a few gallons on the safe side.

Have you learned from Haiti?

2010-01-22T19:59:00.000-08:00

You have seen the images of terrible destruction from Haiti, and perhaps you think no disaster in the United States would ever be that bad. The U.S. has construction standards, after all. That's why so many buildings collapsed in that small island nation.

In my mind, though, the Haiti quake just amplifies the fact that we all need to have a disaster kit in our homes and a plan in case of emergency. Buy supplies before you need them. Canned goods and batteries have a shelf life of a few months to a couple of years. When your camera or TV remote needs fresh batteries, rotate the older ones out of the disaster kit and put in a fresh package. Same with the canned goods in your pantry.

Think you're safe from earthquakes? Most parts of the U.S. have experienced quakes in the past. They may have happened a couple hundred years ago, but then again, this month's quake in Haiti was the strongest to hit the island since 1770.

The U.S. Geological Survey has a lot of great information on historic quakes, maps of faultlines, and preparedness information. Did you know that a quake centered in Charleston, South Carolina was felt clear down to Florida? An earthquake centered in Missouri was felt over 2 million square miles! You can read the stories state-by-state on the USGS site.

At the very least, it's interesting reading, and it's certainly something to think about.

Feeling the Winds of Ida

2009-11-09T14:53:00.000-08:00

Bands of rain have been passing over the area off and on all day as Ida moved closer to the Northwest Florida coast. The wind is starting to gust now. Tim put up the small yard waste cans; the large garbage cans ought to be all right. The regular trash has some big bags of cat litter in it which should help hold it down. In addition, we piled in some small limbs that had been sitting in the back yard for a while. Our workplaces both shut down early today, which gave us a chance to get those last minute preps done while we still had daylight.

I'm charging my cell phone, and I really ought not to be running the laptop off battery, but it's easier, and I don't expect to lose power. I'll plug it in later to top off the charge, then unplug it when things get bad to protect against surges.

Today, the National Hurricane Center has taken the line off the graphic showing the projected path. Perhaps too many people are focusing on that line and not on the fact that this is a large storm with tropical storm force winds extending 200 miles from the center. That means, the storm is 400 miles across, and even if you're on the very edge of the storm, you will experience sustained winds of 38mph or more.

Ida will not, for most people, be catastrophic, however, hurricanes and tropical storms can spin off tornados. Sustained high winds over several hours can break a weak limb, pull up a loose shingle, and cause other damage. Nothing to worry about unless it's your house that suddenly springs a leak or your car that has a broken windshield from a broken branch.

Now, while tropical storms and National Hurricane Advisories are on everyone's mind, the NHC is looking for input about how their public advisories are presented. Take a moment and go to the NHC's discussion page. They present several examples of public advisories prepared in the current style and the proposed new style. Compare them, then drop the NHC a note letting them know what you like and don't like. This will determine how information is presented in the future.

Ida makes beeline for Northwest Florida

2009-11-08T19:49:00.000-08:00

Hurricane Ida is a Category 2 storm expected to make landfall in Pensacola or thereabouts early on Tuesday. The Pensacola News Journal has some updates on school closings. If you read the comments on the PNJ's website, you'll get the impression that the locals aren't taking this seriously, except as an excuse to get out of going to work or school.

We were gone to an event all day today, so we really haven't done any preparations. Depending on the latest track on Monday afternoon, we may cover our large living room window after work. At this point, the storm is expected to lose quite a bit of steam before making landfall, in large part because of cooler water temps near the coast. We did buy some extra water on Saturday, we have our supply of GoPicnic meals, as well as peanut butter and canned tuna, so we'll be okay. If we should lose power for more than a day, we can drag out the generator (and hope we can get some gas to go in it). However, I'm not anticipating more than a few hours without power, if we lose it at all.

The most important thing will be to take a look around your home, keeping an eye out for anything that can be caught in the wind: loose limbs that could be trimmed before the storm gets here, a piece of shingle or loose gutter that could be tacked down befor the wind tears it away. Pick up toys, put up patio furniture. Anything that can be blown around by a strong gust of wind can become a missile that breaks windows, dents cars, and causes other damage.

It's great that people aren't panicking about Ida, but nor should they (or you, if you're in the path) believe that this storm will not be capable of damage. Any tropical storm has the ability to cause wind damage and flooding. Be proactive for the safety of your home and family and for the people around you.

Ida is a tropical storm again.

2009-11-07T20:34:00.000-08:00

The Florida panhandle is definitely going to feel some effects from Tropical Storm Ida in a couple of days. All the computer models show it crossing or at least coming near Northwest Florida. The official track is pointing it a bit more towards Panama City, but of course, areas to the west and east are still in the cone of uncertainty. Also, the storm's wind and rain will extend far beyond a single point on the map. Folks in low lying areas should prepare for storm surge as well. Even if Ida is "only" a tropical storm, it could still cause flooding from rising waters as well as rainfall. It's probably a good idea to secure anything that can blow around. We don't know what kind of winds we'll feel, and it's better to be safe than sorry.

Ida expected to re-strengthen

2009-11-06T10:37:00.000-08:00

As of noon Friday, Ida is over land and down to tropical depression status. Soon, however, the system will move back over the water and head towards the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures are in the mid-80s, and warmer waters feed and strengthen tropical weather systems. Forecasters say Ida could reach hurricane strength again. The National Hurricane Center is anticipating that the storm will travel north for a bit and then turn east into Florida. Computer models are all over the place, with some moving the storm towards Texas or Louisiana, then possibly turn east. Others are following variations of the NHC's track (or rather, the NHC forecasters are putting more trust in those models that head east).

Fortunately, the waters near the coast of Florida are cooler than in the middle of the Gulf. That should help weaken Ida before she makes landfall.

Let's all keep an eye on this storm and be ready to take action to protect our homes and families if she heads our way.

A Hurricane in Novemberr?!

2009-11-05T06:43:00.000-08:00

Hurricane Ida is now swirling in the waters off Nicaragua. That's right, a full-fledged Category 1 hurricane has formed in November.

Hurricane season ends November 30, and it's not unprecedented to see tropical storms and hurricanes this late in the year. A couple of times in recent memory, we've even had named storms develop in December. Aren't those pesky storms watching the calendar?

The National Hurricane Center has the storm crossing Nicaragua and Honduras, losing strength over land, then moving back over the open water, strengthening to tropical storm status and heading into the Gulf.

The good news is, the waters are cooling, so the storm shouldn't gain a lot of strength. It still has the potential to cause some wind damage and flooding upon landfall.

The ensemble models are all over the place, but at this point, if you live on the Gulf Coast, you should begin watching the National Hurricane Center for updates. I'll be checking my stock of canned goods, and I just received a package of six GoPicnic meals through an online giveaway. If the storm hits Pensacola and power gets knocked out, I'll be okay until they get it turned back on. I don't expect this to be a two-weeks-without-power experience, just a couple or three days at most.

At this point in the season, I'm a little calmer, because I don't expect a monster storm. Please, Mother Nature, don't prove me wrong! If you live in an area that could be targeted by Ida, do what I'm doing and watch the track, check for a few supplies, and don't stock up on refrigerated foods.

Be ready with an ICE-QUBE.

2009-10-13T19:07:00.000-07:00

Having dealt with three major hurricanes in 2004-2005, I am well aware how important it is to be prepared for disaster. Hurricanes aren't the only threat to our security. Terrorism, blackouts, earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, snowstorms, volcanoes (thankfully, our homeowner's insurance does cover volcanic activity) or even a pandemic disease could leave us scrambling to survive.

That's why it's important to have an emergency kit, whether it's something you put together yourself or something you buy.

I was fortunate enough to win a small ICE-QUBE emergency kit from another blog, MommyPR and ICE-QUBE, so I have a chance to review it here. Now, I was expecting the Starter Kit, which retails for $19.99, so I was quite pleasantly surprised to find that they'd sent me their ICE-QUBE To Go, which retails for $149.00!

I'm copying the list of contents from the ICE-QUBE website and I'll give my thoughts next to each:

AM/FM Radio with flashlight, siren and hand-crank - this is a little different than is pictured on the website, but I wound the crank a few times and I was able to test the flashlight and tune in a couple of radio stations (AM and FM). It's not a really bright light to work by, but it would be nice for finding your way in the dark and you don't have to worry about finding fresh batteries. The radio got a clear signal for listening to news and official updates.
Energy Pills - it's a small package of pills. Not sure how well they work, but it's hard work cleaning up after a natural disaster, so hopefully they'll provide some pep.
Face Shield - this is one of those dust mask, cup style paper face mask. It will help filter some dust if you're clearing debris or dealing with smoke and ash. It could also be useful for some medical emergencies, though I don't know how well it will filter germs. Note: this is a different style than what is pictured on the website, and you get one, not several.
First-Aid Kit:
Alcohol Wipes
Antiseptic Wipes
Bandages
Burn Cream
Cleansing Wipes
Ice Pack
Medical Grade Gloves
Tweezers
First Aid Reference Guide
The first aid kit is all packed in a cloth case with a carabiner-style clip on one corner, so you can snap it on a belt loop or backpack. There's not a lot of any one thing, but it's a nice assortment to deal with minor injuries.
ICE Emergency Plan is a card that you fill out with contact numbers, such as work, school, family contacts, doctor and insurance company phone numbers, and pre-agreed information like where the emergency family meeting place is and who will be the family's point of contact out-of-town (this is where you tell everyone you know that if your hometown is hit by a hurricane, you're going to call Aunt Jane in Minnesota and then everyone can call her instead of trying to get through to you right after the storm).
Marker - I'm not sure how long this will stay functional in a closet, but it's good to have a heavy-duty marker to write your FEMA or Blue Roof number on your house or to make "no trespassing" or "danger" signs if you have serious damage.
Multi-tool - a handy small tool in a cloth case, kind of like a Swiss Army Knife. It could be good for pulling nails out of boards, and that kind of minor situation.
Mylar blanket - shiny silver for signaling for help. Great for keeping warm after a blizzard. Well, it's supposed to help you keep warm. Not living the frozen north, I don't know how well it would work. It is plastic, so you might be able to use it like a tarp to block a leak.
Rain Poncho - handy to have if you have to get out in the rain, although in a hurricane, it probably won't really keep you dry.
Rope - This looks smaller than what is pictured. It's more like cord than rope, but it's 50' of nylon that could be used to tie down a tarp or secure something that's in danger of falling.
Tarp/Tube Tent - It's made of a pretty thin material, but it's better than nothing to help block a leak or cover some of your belongings if they're getting wet. I can't think of many situations that would require camping out, but it could provide some shade if you're working outside in the sun. This may be something more appropriate to keep in the car in case something happens while you're on the road. It's bright orange, so it could be used as a signal as well. It is packaged with a small coil of cord.
Thermometer - this is a paper or plastic lay-it-on-your-head thermometer that is packed in the first aid kit.
Whistle - a nice shiny metal whistle to signal for help.
Waterproof Document Pouch - it's a zipper-sealed plastic bag, but it is thicker plastic and larger than what you typically get in the grocery store.
Waterproof Matches - box of matches for lighting candles, hurricane lamps, charcoal grills, gas heaters, or debris fires. Be very careful, especially if the water pressure is down after your disaster. It's really difficult to fight a fire without water.
Work Gloves - very nice cloth gloves. The fingers and part of the palms are coated with rubber or latex or something, which will probably make them a little more waterproof and give you better grip for moving things that are wet.
Waterbag - this wasn't listed on their website, but it's a bag that will hold 2.5 gallons of water with a pour spout included. If you have some warning, you can fill the bag with tap water to ensure you have an ample supply in case you lose water pressure or the lines break.

It's all packed inside this 8" cube and in a heavyweight plastic bag inside the cardboard box, to help keep it dry. The box has a handy plastic handle built into the top.

I did have to laugh a little at one of the press releases included with the kit, which starts out, "In a post 9/11, post Katrina world, Leslie Fastenberg asked herself a serious question 'Does my family have a real emergency plan?' After a failed attempt to use the products that were available, she created her own."

I don't know how any item in this kit is any better or any easier to use than any similar item you can buy in a store. You could probably put together a very similar kit for less than the $149 price tag of the ICE-QUBE To Go. That said, this is a very simple way to build a family emergency kit. Order the ICE-QUBE, stick it in a closet, and you're just about ready for any disaster (you'll still need to stock up on medications and canned food, for example). This kit would make a great gift for a housewarming, a student living on their own for the first time, or for newlyweds. The box is an easy size to store, helping you keep everything together for that time you need it.

The bottom line: if it's easier to spend $149 to have a good emergency kit than to take the time to go shopping and find all the items on the above list and pack it into your own storage tub or case, then by all means order this very functional kit. If you have less money, print the list and go shopping at your local hardware and discount stores. You'll find everything you need, it'll just take a little more time.

Be prepared. Be safe.

I just want to make clear for the FTC and the FCC and whoever cares -- I received this ICE-QUBE kit as a prize from a giveaway on MommyPR.com. I was not asked to review it, and I received no compensation for my time or my writing.

Making a Disaster Kit

2009-09-23T19:48:00.000-07:00

The United States Navy has come out with videos designed to help service members and their families prepare for disasters and other catastrophic emergencies. If you're not a service member, when they talk about what the Navy or the command requires, just think about your employer. Some businesses, such as hospitals, first responders, and news media will need employees at work. No matter who you work for, you need to know how to contact your supervisors and how to find out about closures and changes in operations.

Learn more by visiting the Operation Prepare YouTube Channel or blog. You can also follow Operation Prepare on Twitter. Operation Prepare also has a blog.

My blog is mostly about hurricane preparedness, but if you have a disaster plan and an emergency kit, you will also be able to handle just about anything else that may get thrown your way. These videos and other resources provided by the U.S. Navy are a great introduction to disaster prep and if you do have a plan and a kit, it's a great refresher for an actual emergency.

Goodbye, Magnolia

2009-09-05T07:26:00.000-07:00

We bought our house early in 2004, and that summer, as Florida was getting slammed by hurricane after hurricane, my dad cam over and worked with my husband to trim back our beautiful magnolia. It's very close to the house, and at that time, a lot of limbs were growing over the roof.

Beginning on September 15 and for the next 24 hours or so, Hurricane Ivan pummeled northwest Florida. The Magnolia did not damage the house. A pecan tree in back was left leaning precariously, and we were lucky enough to find some guys (aka The Three Stooges) to remove it for a couple hundred bucks. Most people were charging far more, because the work was plentiful and homeowners were desperate to prevent any further damage.

We talked about taking the magnolia down then, but I love the flowers, and being a much larger tree, it was going to cost a lot more than a couple hundred bucks to remove.

Fast forward to 2009, and my cousin has a tree service now. He's been doing some work for my mom and gave us a really good price for removing the Magnolia. The tree's roots have already damaged the foundation of the backyard shed, and they're making the brick patio all wavery. They could threaten the foundation of the house, and in a major hurricane, it's a very real threat to our roof.

Monday, it's coming down.

When was the last time you looked around your yard to assess potential storm damage? Do you have trees close to your house, do the limbs come close to the roof or windows? Do puddles form in certain areas after a moderate rain, potentially flooding in a really heavy or sustained downpour?

I really hate to see the Magnolia go, but by taking it out, we are protecting our home from damage above and below. What can you do to protect your home?

Jimena weakens, Erika arrives

2009-09-01T16:57:00.000-07:00

Hurricane Jimena is now a moderate Cat 3 hurricane, expected to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday. The storm is now moving north alongside the Baja peninsula, its powerful winds stretching over the narrow land mass to batter homes and businesses. A hurricane's strongest winds are typically east of the eye, and that's the part of Jimena that is stretched out over the Mexican peninsula. It's good news that the storm has weakened from a powerful Category 4 to a mid-range Cat 3. It's still a massive and terrible storm that will cause a lot of damage. By Sunday, the system is expected to degrade to a tropical low, which will certainly dump a lot of rain on the southern parts of California and Arizona.

With sustained winds of 50mph, the Atlantic's newest named storm is barely a Tropical Storm. The National Hurricane Center anticipates T.S. Erika to gain a little strength over the next couple of days as it moves west-northwest in the Atlantic, but forecasters believe a strengthening shear will then knock the wind out of Erika's sails. So to speak. The NHC's track keeps the storm east of Florida.

It's worth pointing out that a couple of the models, this according to the NHC, predict that an "anticyclone" will form near Erika and fuel the storm, maybe even taking it to hurricane strength. Out of six computer models mapped out on Weather Underground, three mimic the NHC's official track. The others keep the storm moving west towards the Caribbean.

Watch and wait.

Batten Down the Baja for Jimena

2009-08-31T22:07:00.000-07:00

Unless something incredible happens and Jimena loses a lot of steam very quickly, Mexico's Baja Peninsula is going to be slammed in the next few hours by a Category Four storm. With maximum sustained winds of 155mph as I write this, if Jimena gains even a little strength, it will become a Cat 5. This storm is going to be catastrophic. I have to admit, my focus has been on the Atlantic, because it's more likely to affect my area. In the meantime, this massive storm has formed in the Pacific and made a beeline for land.

Because the peninsula is just a narrow strip of land, and because the storm is going to be so strong, I think I would evacuate if I lived there. Of course, I don't know the terrain. Maybe there's some higher ground that will be safe from storm surge, if the structure is sturdy enough to withstand a constant battering from extremely high winds over several hours.

Structures built on high land also may be at risk of mudslides washing out the foundation. I've seen that happen in hilly areas of Mexico and the Caribbean Islands when they're hit by a hurricane.

Bottom line, if you're reading this and you're in Baja California, please be safe. Make informed decisions based on official sources, such as the National Hurricane Center and your local government. Consider what the intense winds, storm surge, and heavy rains could do to your home and your neighborhood, and be safe.

Please take pets with you.

If you are staying, be sure you have enough food and water for your family and pets for at least three days. Barricade the windows with wood or metal sheets to keep flying debris and pounding winds from breaking the glass. Check supplies of flashlights, batteries, portable radios. Be sure you have enough prescription medication, if you take any. If there's any chance of flooding, have sandbags ready to keep water out of your home.

Put valuables in plastic storage tubs or plastic bags. That way if water does get in, over the doorjam or through a damaged roof or windows, maybe some of your things will be spared. Know where your insurance paperwork is.

If your home sustains damage, remember, you can and should make temporary repairs as you are able -- please be careful -- and document what you did. Your insurance company will want to know that you tried to minimize the damage as much as possible.

God be with you.

Folks on the Atlantic and Gulf Coast should still be keeping an eye on the big red blob now in the Atlantic. The computer models are all over the place, meaning there's no telling where this thing will end up. It's taking a long time to develop into anything, which is good. Maybe it will never get very strong. However, the fact that it is a red blob (as opposed to orange or yellow) means there's a very good chance this system will become a named storm.

The American Red Cross has just debuted a new website with fun ways to learn about and think about preparedness. It's part of a campaign called Do More Than Cross Your Fingers. Visit the site, play the games, and think about your own emergency plan. Are you ready?

Now there's T.S. Danny

2009-08-26T19:46:00.000-07:00

The red blog last night is Tropical Storm Danny this evening. Though the NHC is calling Danny "poorly organized," forecasters are predicting that the storm will become a Hurricane by Saturday. Expect to feel some outward effects of the storm in North Carolina and states north of there; the cone of uncertainty brushes the edges of several Atlantic-coast states and Washington, D.C. The track keeps the eye of the storm at sea for the next several days. New England and Canada will likely take another hit.

If I lived in those areas, I'd make sure to pick up lightweight lawn furniture, outdoor ornaments, and toys that might get blown around in a strong wind, and I'd keep an eye on the storm's track and intensity in case anything changes.

Meanwhile, there's another tropical wave off the coast of Africa. That one bears watching.

Another Storm Brewing in the Atlantic?

2009-08-25T18:49:00.000-07:00

The orange blob I blogged about last night is red tonight, meaning the National Hurricane Center thinks that low pressure system is going to develop into a tropical depression soon. The computer models available over at Weather Underground continue to suggest that the system will follow a similar path to Hurricane Bill, up the eastern seaboard between the U.S. and Bermuda. Some of the models have it hitting New England or Canada. Others have it spinning out into the north Atlantic. If you live on the east coast, it's worth checking the NHC website each day to see what effects you might see in your area.

A New Area of Interest

2009-08-24T12:28:00.000-07:00

Bill has broken up in the north Atlantic. Now the National Hurricane Center is watching a new area of interest. This morning, the area was yellow, indicating a low chance of development into a tropical depression. This afternoon, the area is orange, indicating a moderate chance of development.

Computer models forecast the low pressure system following a similar path to Bill's. North in the Atlantic, somewhere between the Eastern U.S. and Bermuda.

It may fizzle out or it may strengthen. Keep an eye on it.

A hurricane is not a show.

2009-08-23T20:32:00.000-07:00

I was saddened and angered to hear that a seven-year-old girl was swept out to sea by Hurricane Bill. The child was with her family, on a rocky coastal overlook, watching the waves. The parents will have to live with this mistake for the rest of their lives. I guess they thought it would be pretty or interesting for the children to see the force of nature. Perhaps they considered it educational or just a weekend diversion.

Up and down the east coast, you can find reports today of people who drowned or nearly drowned in high waves and rip currents exacerbated by the passing hurricane. Surfers always think they're safe, but the fact is that no one, even the most experienced swimmer, is truly safe when a violent storm passes by. The waves are volatile, the winds gusting and changing, the tides higher than normal.

These deaths were completely preventable. These people could have stayed home, stayed away from the beaches, and watched storm video on The Weather Channel or the internet.

In addition to the lives lost, Coast Guard teams and lifeguards put their own safety at risk to rescue or try to rescue people who willingly put themselves in the danger zone for a pretty view or a bitchin' wave.

No one will learn from these tragedies. The next time a storm passes by, people will flock to the beaches and coastlines to see for themselves the force of nature, to ride the waves in defiance of the storm's wrath. Some of them will never come home.

Bill Heads North

2009-08-22T19:24:00.001-07:00

I'm very happy to hear that Bill was not too rough on Bermuda. It looked like it was going to be a very large and dangerous storm, but luck was with the island and the hurricane's intensity diminished, in addition to the track taking it farther west than had been anticipated a few days ago.

Now Bill is heading to New England as a Category 1 storm. It still poses a threat of storm surge and flooding, as well as some wind damage.

It is always better to err on the side of caution, and to stock up on supplies, be prepared with an emergency plan, and take every step to prepare your home and family for the worst. I would rather be ready and not need my supplies, than to not prepare and have the damage be worse than anticipated.

Bill's Getting Bigger

2009-08-20T19:48:00.000-07:00

According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Bill is about 510 miles across. Hurricane force winds extend out 105 miles from the eye (that's one way). Tropical storm force winds will be felt up to 260 miles from the center. Sustained winds are currently 125 miles per hour, a strong Category 3 storm. It's good that the winds have fallen down a bit, although the NHC advisory says the storm could pick up strength again on Friday. The U.S. east coast and Bermuda will experience storm surge, and will very likely feel a lot of wind and rain.

The latest track seems to have Bill passing a bit further west of Bermuda than it showed earlier in the week. Of course, there's always a margin of error, hence the "cone of uncertainty" that appears around the forecast track on most maps.

If you're interested in reviewing the accuracy or inaccuracy of the National Hurricane Center's forecasts, here's a great place to go: the Graphics Archive. That link will take you to a list of choices. I like to use the 5-day forecast with cone of uncertainty. When you click on the link, you'll get a slideshow of all the forecast maps since the NHC has been tracking the storm. You can use the controls at left to STOP the automatic loop, then use the little arrow buttons to toggle one frame at a time. This is good because the size of the map changes sometimes, resulting in a kind of jump cut that can be disorienting.

It's very interesting to see how the storm's track changes while still generally staying within the "cone of uncertainty."

Otherwise, the tropics remain calm, after a somewhat surprising burst of activity over the past week.

I wish everyone well who's anywhere near the path of Hurricane Bill.

Bermuda Officials Give Warning

2009-08-18T21:17:00.001-07:00

A few hours after my last post, and the sports story has been replaced with "Breaking News: People urged to prepare for Hurricane Bill today."

It's about time.

Is Bermuda bracing for the blow?

2009-08-18T13:16:00.001-07:00

I'm a little mystified by the Royal Gazette's coverage of Hurricane Bill. First of all, I went to the Bermuda's paper's website and it was the fourth item down. Top story (breaking news) was some sports story.

Then I read the article. They quote a Bermuda Weather Service forecaster as saying, "It is a long way away. If it does come up towards Bermuda, the forecast says that it will pass to the west of the Island."

Hurricane Ike passed about 350 miles south of Pensacola, and we had flooding from some storm surge. (I arrived at that 350 miles figure by looking at the storm's path. Pensacola is on the 30 latitude line and the storm passed on the 25 latitude line. One latitude line is about 70 miles, so by my calculations 5 latitude lines=350 miles.)

Looking at the satellite photos of Bill, if the storm's eye passes about 100 miles from Bermuda (as the aforementioned forecaster suggested), it's still going to be a nasty hit to the island. A hurricane is not a dot on a map. That's just the eye. Yes, the winds are usually worst right around the eye, but there's a lot of destructive power spread out over hundreds of miles. As well, the forecast has Bill tracking west of the island. You never want to be on the east side of a hurricane, at least not in the northern hemisphere.

In 2005, Katrina made landfall on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, about 152 miles west of Pensacola, and my power was out for three days. Not that I'm complaining, I'm just demonstrating that the reach of a major hurricane goes well beyond that little dot on the map.

I hope that the people of Bermuda are taking this more seriously than their newspaper seems to be and that they're stocking up and making plans to take themselves and their pets to the highest ground they can find.

I'll give the paper some points for including a checklist of supplies to buy and steps to take in advance of the storm, but they don't really seem to be stressing that the time to take action is now.

Brace Yourself, Bermuda

2009-08-17T19:00:00.000-07:00

Bill is going to be a major hurricane when it passes by the little island of Bermuda in a few days. The only thing we can hope for is that the track continues to shift east. Since the winds are typically strong on the storm's east side, if Bill were to keep Bermuda to his left, the island might not suffer quite as much. It's still going to be bad.

Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast has been spared, for now. Claudette wasn't bad at all and was quickly downgraded after making landfall just after midnight. In Pensacola we had some rain, and it was quite a breezy day, but things weren't bad at all. Ana has dissipated and the National Hurricane Center is no longer issuing updates. It was surprising that Ana developed at all. That system was never really well-organized, which is good news for everyone in its path. Let's hope it continues to fall apart and doesn't re-form.

While hunting for information about these three systems, I discovered a new service which, for the moment at least, is free. Emicus is setting itself up to be a clearinghouse of information from difference community sources. If you're in a disaster area, you can send reports by iPhone or text message. They get feeds from Twitter, they have a tracking map for hurricanes and other dangerous weather situations, they offer checklists for disaster preparedness.... but what made me say, "Cool!" was they offer a quick and easy way to let the people important to you know that you're all right after a disaster.

Here's how it works: register on Emicus and create a list of emergency contacts. You can list phone number/text number/email address. Say a hurricane hits or an earthquake strikes. You're very busy and communication is spotty, but if you can get through a single text message, you can reach everyone on your list. Simply text "I'm Ok" plus a short personal message (like "I'm ok, a little roof damage, but we're fine") to 364287 (spells Emicus, clever huh?), and their system will forward it to everyone on your list. If all you have is a voice number, they'll even call and read it aloud. Isn't that a great idea?

I just registered and listed my mom and my mother-in-law so I know I have a way to reach them. You can list friends, family, co-workers, whoever it might be important to reach after a disaster. Here's a hint -- to enter your names and numbers in the box, you have to click "edit" on the right side of the screen, then it opens up all the fields to type into.

This service will save you time and ease the minds of your loved ones, friends, and colleagues when they're watching the devastation on the Weather Channel or CNN.

Triple Threat - Here's Claudette

2009-08-16T17:19:00.000-07:00

While we were at Wal-mart, buying a few extra gallons of water and some fresh batteries, the low pressure system in the Gulf strengthened to Tropical Storm Claudette. That storm is offshore a little bit east of where I live. We have had some rain today and we'll see more overnight and tomorrow.

Ana has now been downgraded to a tropical depression, and according to the National Hurricane Center's track, they don't expect it to restrengthen to storm status. Let's hope they're right. The track also appears to be taking it further west, meaning folks in Mexico, Texas and Louisiana should pay particular heed to updates. The Caribbean islands, including Cuba, should expect wind and rain.

Bill is still a tropical storm but is expected to become the season's first hurricane. The track is still showing a northern turn. Most models show the storm remaining at sea, though some have it making landfall in Canada.

If you live in a coastal area, please watch for the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center to assess whether any of these storms will affect you and your families.

Double Whammy: Two Named Storms

2009-08-15T20:44:00.000-07:00

I looked at the National Hurricane Center website last night before going to bed, and we had three low pressure systems. The forecasters said one of those was likely to develop into a named storm.

Tonight, I finally get a chance to sign on, and now we have two named storms, Ana and Bill. Long term forecasts show Ana coming into the Gulf and heading right this way, with Bill veering north up the east coast.

Of course, these forecasts are just educated guesses. That's why they give us the cone of uncertainty, because a slight wobble today could mean several hundred miles difference in where the storm ends up a week from now.

I'm not a trained meteorologist or hurricane forecaster. I'm just a very interested amateur. As I'm analyzing the storm and its path, I like to go to the National Weather Service website and look at the 6-day outlook maps. Scroll down, and you'll see eight little maps that you can click on for a bigger image. The maps show how high fronts and low fronts are expected to form and move over the next week.

How this helps in tropical cyclone forecasting is that the cyclone aka tropical storm aka hurricane is a low pressure system, and lows are attracted to lows. A high pressure system, on the other hand, will push the tropical system away.

If you look at the map for six days out, you'll see a high pressure system that extends into Northwest Florida. That's good for me, here in Pensacola. That means Ana probably won't hit here, though we will probably feel some effects, such as rain bands, some wind, higher tides and possibly some flooding around the coast or rivers.

Now, I must point out that those highs and lows may not develop or move in the way the National Weather Service thinks they will. If that high doesn't sweep down into NW Florida at exactly the right time, the storm could come right this way. Plus, the highs and lows aren't the only things that affect tropical cyclones. Other atmospheric steering currents will affect movement, and water temperature affects intensity.

You can see Ana and Bill on the NWS outlook maps. They've got Ana moving across the southern tip of Florida (kind of like Andrew did in 1992), and that's why it shows as a Tropical Storm on the 5-day outlook and a Low on the 6-day. Crossing land weakens the storm.

The National Hurricane Center and Accuweather show Ana passing south of Florida and remaining a Tropical Storm as it enters the Gulf. That means it would remain at T.S. strength and possibly get even stronger, fueled by the Gulf's warmer waters.

Now, let's talk about Bill. Bill is expected to be a full-fledged hurricane by Monday. Most of the computer models show this storm curving to the north with a path that could affect Bermuda and/or New England and/or Canada's east coast. At this point, one model shows the storm making a sharp turn west and hitting the Carolinas. Sometimes a path that's really drastically different from all the other models means that the particular model either didn't account for something that all the others did or there's a error in the calculation somewhere. Or maybe that's the one model that got it right. Landfall is several days away and a lot of different factors will play into which way this storm goes.

If you live along the Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Coast, for the next week or so it's going to be important to pay attention to what's happening, take some preliminary steps to prepare, and be ready to do what it takes to protect your family and property.

Ultimate Disaster Survival Guide

2009-08-13T21:15:00.000-07:00

The former Invest 99 aka Tropical Depression 2 seems to be fizzling out. Meanwhile, off the coast of Africal, Invest 90 is gaining strength and heading straight towards the Caribbean, according to a number of computer models.

We'll be stocking up on canned goods and bottled water this weekend.

Now is the time to think about what you'll do in the aftermath of a disaster, and Popular Mechanics offers a great guide online. Survive Anything: Your Ultimate Guide to Disaster offers a number of great articles such as

"5 Steps to Get Ready for Disaster"
"22 Steps to Save Yourself When Natural Disaster Hits"
"4 Steps to Power Your Home When the Grid Fails"

If you live on the coast, it's a great time to print a emergency kit checklist, like the one found on the American Red Cross website (see links, right) and have it handy when you go to the grocery store and hardware store so you don't forget anything important.

The Atlantic Gets Busy

2009-08-11T12:06:00.000-07:00

Invest 99 is now Tropical Depression 2. The track seems to be taking the area west-northwest in the Atlantic. Hopefully this one will stay far away from land. The National Hurricane Center is also watching two disturbed areas but there's a fairly low chance either one of them will develop.

If you live on the coast, it's a good idea to check out the NHC regularly. You can watch for anything developing that might affect your area and get that much more advance warning to make your preparations.

Hurricane Season Begins

2009-08-09T07:08:00.000-07:00

Just yesterday, I took a look back at hurricane seasons for the past 30 years, courtesy of Unisys Weather. I already knew that, in recent years, we'd had a named storm or two or nine by this time in August. I had to go back to 1992 to find the first named storm of the season forming in the 8th month -- that was Andrew, which turned into the Cat 5 monster that devastated south Florida. Here's a few more examples of late-starting seasons:

Storm	Formed	Strength	Landfall
T.S. Alberto	August 5, 1988	tropical storm	Canada
Hurricane Arlene	August 8, 1987	Cat 1	Carolinas
T.S. Arthur	August 28, 1984	tropical storm	none
Hurricane Alicia	August 15, 1983	Cat 3	Texas

This morning, the National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. Conditions are fairly good that this will develop. Early computer models available on Crown Weather and Weather Underground (see my links to the right) suggest that the system will move west northwest. Maybe it won't turn into a named storm. Maybe it will stay out in the Atlantic. If it does make landfall, it could strike anywhere along the eastern seaboard from Florida to Canada. If it makes a southerly turn, it could threaten Caribbean islands or any location around the Gulf of Mexico.

Yes, that's a lot of ifs, but if you have made no preparations for a hurricane and you live anywhere along the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts in North America, now is your chance to make a few moves.

Buy a few extra gallons of water and some food that doesn't require refrigeration.
Make sure you have a battery-operated radio and flashlights AND fresh batteries.
Check your medicine cabinet or first aid kit to make sure you have Band-Aids, antibacterial wipes, rubbing alcohol, aspirin or acetaminophen.
Think about how you'll prepare your home and family if the storm comes your way.

Be aware of what's happening. Check the National Hurricane Center website at least once a day, so you'll know if this area of low pressure strengthens or if another storm forms. Download and print a disaster supply list from one of the websites listed to the right. Look it over and see what you already have and consider what you'll need to buy.

Some people do nothing before a storm and rely on the government or other agencies to help them if they need it. Some people wait until the last minute, then run willy-nilly through the grocery store, throwing $200 worth of water, juices boxes, crackers, bread, and canned goods into their carts.

Think calmly and rationally now, when you're not under an immediate threat. One gallon of water per person per day is a good plan, because it'll be hot and you may be exerting yourself physically to clean up damage.

If you have a lot of food in your freezer, do you have a way of keeping it cool (generator) or of cooking it (gas stove, grill)? If so, you may not need to worry about having three days worth of canned goods.

Look at what you have in your pantry. Can you make breakfast, lunch, dinner, and a couple of daily snacks for your family for three days without electricity? If so, you won't have to spend a lot of money on food.

Think ahead now to special needs -- do you rely on prescription medication, oxygen, or home health aides? If so, talk to your providers and understand what will happen if electricity is out or roads are impassable. Is there a special needs shelter? Should you go there? Can you get on a list of "first response" at your power company? These are questions to ask now, not when you have a storm bearing down, offices are closing, phone lines are jammed.

Don't wait until the storm is at your doorstep to make plans.

Perfect Emergency Kit Food

2009-08-08T06:50:00.000-07:00

I just learned about a company that makes pre-packed snacks and meals that require no refrigeration and have a shelf-life of up to two years. The company is GoPicnic. They started out making meal packages for the airline industry. Now, before you say "Ugh, airline food!" GoPicnic's products sound really good. I think I may have had one or two of their snack packs before on flights, or at least something similar, and they were quite tasty.

I wouldn't suggest buying enough of these GoPicnic meals to feed the whole family for a week, but a few of them would add variety to the canned tuna and peanut butter that are staples in a post-storm blackout. You could open one and let each member of the family choose something or give everyone a box of their own to open.

If you're lucky enough not to use these during hurricane season, they make great snacks or lunches for school or work. Buy a few more going into the next season.

The important thing, as always, is to have enough provisions to feed your family for at least three days. After that, maybe the National Guard and Red Cross will be passing out MREs somewhere or major stores will be re-opening.

Storm Safety for Your Data

2009-07-27T20:49:00.000-07:00

If you plan to evacuate, be ready to take all your important papers -- such as mortgage, insurance, identification and documents. If your home is flooded or washed away, those documents could be damaged or lost. Having them with you will help expedite filing claims and receiving benefits.

If you have a camera or camcorder, take photos of your home before the storm. Show your prep work, like how your windows are protected, so you can prove you took steps to protect your property. Also take photos of the home's contents to help prove loss or damage. Be sure to take the photos and video with you.

If you have a lot of important data on your computer, anything from your family photos to that novel you've been working on for three years, consider an offsite back up. Companies like Carbonite will let you store unlimited amounts of data for about $55 a year, and it's encrypted for security. That's not something to do at the last minute, because it could take hours or even days, depending on your connection speed, for your entire hard drive to upload. Until midnight on July 28, 2009, you can enter for a free year of Carbonite service over at MommyPR.

Another option is to buy an external hard drive that's large enough to back up everything on your computer. Don't forget to pack it before you leave.

The time to think about what you'll take with you is before you're panicked with a storm bearing down on you. Make your list today. Tack it up to a bulletin board or tape it to the fridge and add to it every time you think of something important. Wedding photos. Heirloom jewelry. The irreplaceable mementos of life and family. You may have to pare down your list to fit everything in the car, but maybe you can avoid the thought, 200 miles down the road, that you've left something valuable behind because you just didn't think of it.

Easy Survival Kit

2009-07-25T21:58:00.000-07:00

If you're in a hurry to get everything you need for a disaster (not too big a hurry, because it has to be shipped to you), check out this website: ICE-QUBE Preparedness Kits. This company does the shopping, so you don't have to. They have small, basic kits for about $20 all the way up to the deluxe $950 kit that has supplies for four people in a sturdy trunk.

Can't spend that kind of money? Take a look at ICE-QUBE's Luxe Kit and print out the supplies that are included. Take it to the store with you. You can be sure you're not forgetting anything, but you may not need to buy everything on the list. Hopefully, you already have pliers, a shovel, flashlight and some of the other basic supplies.

A great idea to keep from having to shell out big bucks at the last minute is to buy a few items along every month. Escambia County's emergency preparedness site at one time had a printable list broken down by weeks. Week 1, you buy these items. Week 2 is a different list and so forth, for 11 weeks. You started at the beginning of hurricane season or maybe a couple of weeks before. The bad storms usually don't hit until later in the summer and by then, you'll have everything you need. Unfortunately, they took that list down, and I didn't save a copy. The idea is still valid, you just have to consider everything you'd need in the event of an emergency and buy a few items along. As you buy, check them off the list until you have everything you need.

Remember, whether you buy a ready-made kit or assemble your own:

Food and water will go bad. Check your supplies at least once a year and make sure the food is not past the sell-by date on the label.
Batteries will go dead just sitting in the package. Replace with fresh batteries at least once a year. Sometimes they have use-by dates on the label as well.
Some plastics will deteriorate just sitting in storage, especially if you keep the kit in an attic or garage that isn't temperature controlled. It's good to pull out your emergency kit once or twice a year and go through everything to make sure it's still in usable condition, the flashlights and radios work, the food is fresh, the plastic sheeting isn't starting to tear, mice didn't eat into any of the packaging, etc.
Your needs may change. Last year, maybe you didn't have a baby or a pet or a special health consideration. Always consider whether you need to update your kit.

It's never too soon to start planning for a disaster, because one day, it will be too late.

Hurricane Survival Links

2009-06-19T22:02:00.000-07:00

I created most of the posts on this website in 2008. In June, 2009, with hurricane season barely underway and the tropics quiet (so far), I have updated the links in last summer's posts. The information remains valid. It's important to have an emergency plan in place, because sometimes you get just two or three days notice. Even if a storm builds over weeks in the Atlantic, the track may change at the last minute, and you'll find yourself facing a disaster you thought would befall someone else. I hope if you have found your way here, you'll take a few minutes to read those 2008 posts and think about the ideas presented here and on the recommended websites.

Are you ready for a disaster?

2009-06-18T19:48:00.000-07:00

It's always amazing to me that people who live in coastal communities generally don't make any special preparations for hurricane season or consider it anything to worry about until the storm is a couple of days away and making a beeline for their homes.

The National Hurricane Survival Initiative is a new website that focuses on the importance of preparation and provides some terrific resources and information. On the front page, they link to a poll, completed in May 2009, in which they asked people who live in coastal communities about the forthcoming hurricane season. More than half said they don't feel vulnerable to hurricane damage. More than half said they don't have a family disaster plan. Nearly a third said they would take no special steps to prepare their home for a hurricane. Eight percent of the people surveyed said they would use tape to protect their windows!

If you are reading this blog, I hope that means you are concerned about the safety of your home and family and are prepared for the event of an emergency.

Hurricane preparedness = disaster preparedness. If you are ready to weather a storm, then you'll be prepared for a pandemic, a terrorist attack, another natural disaster, an unexpected blackout, or any other emergency situation.

Remember, it's better to be prepared for no reason, then to be unprepared when disaster strikes!

The Power is Out

2008-08-30T08:01:00.000-07:00

You have your flashlights and your radio, right? And fresh batteries.

If you have a generator, you don't have to run it constantly to save the stuff in your fridge. Don't open the doors often, to keep in the cold air, and run the generator for a few hours, maybe twice a day.

Make sure your generator is in a well ventilated area!! Even a screened-in porch can contain enough carbon monoxide to kill you. Before, during, or after a hurricane, someone always dies from carbon monoxide poisoning. Make sure you know and understand the safety rules before you fire up that generator, and be very careful.

Many people rely on candles for lighting after a storm, and that has its own dangers. You don't want your house to survive a hurricane only to burn down a few days later.

The U.S. Fire Administration provides a checklist of safety tips that's well worth reading.

The First 72

2008-08-30T07:41:00.000-07:00

You probably remember the days after Hurricane Katrina (2005), when the people of New Orleans were complaining that no one was bringing them food or water.

You probably don't remember hearing those complaints from Mississippi, where Katrina actually made landfall or from Florida after Hurricane Ivan. Maybe we didn't yell as loudly or maybe more people in those areas knew about the storm and had prepared for it.

After Katrina, the federal government came up with a new slogan: "The First 72 Are Up to You." Basically, you must be prepared to take care of yourself and your family for the first three days after the storm passes.

Why?

A major hurricane leaves roads covered with debris - trees, power poles, parts of roofs, tin siding, trash. The roads must be cleared before help can arrive. Sometimes, roads and bridges are left impassible by the storm. The tarmac at the airport must be inspected before planes and helicopters can safely land.

Your local government is responsible for setting up distribution centers for food, water, and ice. They need to have a large parking lot or other area to deliver these goods. You have to have a way to get there -- another reason for clearing roads of debris.

So, make sure you have the food, water, medicine and first aid supplies that you need to survive for three days. The federal government has a handy checklist online at Ready.gov.

If money is an issue, keep in mind you don't necessarily have to buy water -- if you have a cooler, jars, sports bottles, any of those things can be used to store tap water. You just want to make sure that what you put the water in is clean and has a lid so that it doesn't get contaminated with dust, dirt, animal hair or whatever may be floating around after the storm.

Meals after a hurricane don't have to be fancy. You can live off bread or crackers, peanut butter, and potted meat. It's nice to have a variety of foods, but it's not necessary.

Do you have a grill? Don't try to use it in the house, but you can cook on it outdoors after the storm passes. You'll need gas or charcoal to fuel it. After Hurricanes Ivan and Dennis (2005), I heard of big neighborhood parties where everyone who had a grill fired it up and people cooked all the meat from their freezers before it went bad.

You may lose water pressure after the storm, so you'll also need water to flush the toilet. That's where filling your tub comes in handy. Don't try to fill the toilet's tank. The most efficient way is to pour the water directly into the toilet bowl. Pour it slowly. When it gets to a certain point, the toilet will flush itself and you can stop pouring.

Before the storm, make sure your ice chest is clean and ready to take in whatever food and medications need refrigeration. You can make extra ice in the freezer. Blocks of ice will last longer - to make your own, fill a water or milk jug about three-quarters full of water (water expands as it freezes) and put it in the freezer. I wouldn't want to drink out of the milk jug, but when the ice melts, that's water you can use to flush the toilet, at least.

It's easier to see these less expensive options if you're looking ahead at the beginning of hurricane season. When the storm is a day or two away and you're panicked, you can't think as clearly.

Finding Shelter

2008-08-30T07:10:00.000-07:00

If you decide to leave home, where will you go?

Many people have out-of-state relatives they can stay with during the storm. You can try to find a hotel - keeping in mind that the hotels on major evacuation routes fill up very quickly. Can you bring pets along or will you need to board them? Make sure you have vaccination records and tags from your vet, along with any medications and pet food.

As you're packing, take a few days worth of clothes, your medications and toiletries. If you are staying with someone else, will they take care of feeding you or should you take along those steaks from the freezer (you may lose 'em anyway, when the power goes out). If you are in a hotel, will you be dining out every meal? Taking food with you from home? Buying at a nearby grocery store?

If you're going to a public shelter, they typically do not provide anything but four walls and a roof. They are intended for people who live in mobile homes, flood areas, beachfront homes who must evacuate and have no place else to go. If anyone in your family has a medical condition, ask about special needs shelters. They often have a volunteer nurse on hand. Find out where the shelters are, whether they provide cots or anything that a standard shelter doesn't have, and whether they have a generator, particularly if someone in your family relies on electrical equipment, such as an oxygen tank.

Talk to your doctor in advance about how to preserve medications that require refrigeration. What do you do if your power goes out and your life-saving equipment doesn't work? If you are staying at home, a generator might be a wise investment. If money is an issue, check with local or state agencies to see if they provide assistance to purchase one. Make sure your power company knows your need -- they'll put you at the top of the list to get your power restored.

If you don't have special needs, you may be able to pack as you would for any holiday away. If you're going to a shelter, you must take your own bedding, food, water, toiletries, and paper goods, as well as clothing.

The American Red Cross offers excellent information on preparing for a storm as well as suggestions on what to bring with you when you evacuate.

To Evacuate or Stay

2008-08-30T07:03:00.000-07:00

Some areas are considered "mandatory" evacuation areas. If you insist on staying in a flood zone or in your waterfront home, I don't think you can be forced to leave, but local law enforcement may come by to get information on your next of kin. There is a good chance they'll need it. Keep in mind, too, that if you change your mind at the height of the storm, no one is coming to help you.

If your home is sturdy, built up to code, and on high ground, you may be better off staying put. If anything does happen to your house, you'll be there to do temporary repairs or to move furnishings out of the room that's got the tree in it, before they are damaged further by water. You won't have to worry about your pets. You'll save money on gas to get out of town. Once you're out of town, you might not be able to get back in for a few days due to debris on the roads. There's a lot of benefits to hunkering down at home.

If you think your home will be severely damaged by constant high winds, then leave, for your own safety.

This is a decision that must be made by you, knowing the condition of your house.

A Named Storm is coming my way!

2008-08-30T06:45:00.000-07:00

When the official NHC forecast or several models show a storm coming within 50 miles of your home, it's good to start preparing for the storm. Some people will tell you you're silly, why do anything now because it could hit somewhere else. It's true the track could change, but when the storm is two days out and definitely coming your way, wouldn't you feel better having some of the prep work done?

Five to seven days out, I pick up extra bottled water. We drink bottled water anyway, so it will go to good use. I make sure I have batteries for my radio and flashlights. I check my pantry and pick up a few extra food items that don't require refrigeration or cooking.

Three or four days out, I might fill one 5-gallon gas can (The gas will go in the lawnmower or in the car if we don't need it for the generator). Make sure you have phone numbers at home for the people you work with. Look around your yard and consider what could become a projectile. Pick up toys, trim back those loose tree limbs if you can. If flashing is loose along the edge of your roof, try to do a quick fix so that the wind can't get a grip and use that to damage your home.

Also, wash all your dirty laundry and dishes while you have electricity and running water. If the power is out for three weeks, you'll be glad you did. If you're like me, there's usually something in the back of the fridge that has taken on a life of its own. Throw that stuff out while you have regular garbage pick-up. Unless you have a generator, you'll be clearing out everything else in the refrigerator and freezer about three days after the storm.

Have you ever experienced high water in your neighborhood? I don't live in a flood zone, but drainage issues after Hurricane Ivan (2004) allowed water to reach my porch. Ahead of a storm, we'll fill sandbags to keep water out of the house. Our County Road Department provides free sand and bags ahead of a hurricane. If money is an issue, call around and see what assistance you can get.

A couple of days out, make sure you have important papers together, especially if you are going to evacuate. Your mortgage and property insurance information, car title, copies of recent bills, medical records, and identification are important to take with you. If you come back to nothing, you will know what your insurance covers and what percentage you'll have to pay. You'll have phone numbers to call and change mailing addresses, to cancel services, and report damage.

Consider what you'll have room for in your car. If you have to evacuate, take your most precious photo album along. That super-rare baseball card. Any small items of value -- whether monetary or sentimental.

Please DO NOT leave your pets to fend for themselves. If it's too dangerous for you to stay in your home, it's too dangerous for an animal.

The final days before the storm will be filled with covering your windows, unplugging electric appliances and computers, and picking up anything that you left outdoors (lawn furniture, potted plants). If you are leaving the area, don't wait until the last minute. Roads can get clogged with traffic and some people have ended up riding out the storm in their car on the interstate.
Aren't you glad you started preparing early?

Hurricane Season begins June 1

2008-08-30T06:32:00.000-07:00

The storms don't know that, though, and we've had named storms as early as April (Ana, 2003). Starting in May, I monitor the National Hurricane Center and as soon as they announce an invest, which is an area that could develop into a named storm, I start tracking it. You can find the computer models, the forecast tools that the NHC folks use to come up with the official track, at Skeetobite and Weather Underground.

Another tool I use, when a storm is approaching my community, is the National Weather Service. Click on "National Maps" and you can see how the high and low fronts are forecast to move over the U.S. for up to six days. A high sitting right over your town could help steer the storm away from you.

There are many other factors, such as wind shear, troughs, and ridges, and I am not a meteorologist and haven't figured out how to watch those areas, myself. That's where the NHC's Discussions come in handy. When you are looking at the official track of a storm on the NHC site, right above the tracking chart are a series of links. Look for the one called "Discussion" and click on it. These discussions explain why the forecaster chose the track that has become the official outlook for the storm.

The important thing is to be aware of what's out there that could potentially impact your life.

When a storm comes your way, you'll hear people complaining about how expensive it is to prepare but you don't have to wait until the last minute. Start making your emergency list now. Spread out your costs by buying a few items each week, before a hurricane starts churning its way towards your home.

Purpose of this Blog

2008-08-30T06:30:00.001-07:00

As the 2008 hurricane season has progressed, I've noticed that it's like Floridians have forgotten the devastating storms of '04 and '05. I'm sure that many people living in coastal communities assume they're safe, because their states haven't been struck in years. So, I'm creating this blog as a helpful tool to remind people of safety measures they should take.